The White House has extended the Jones Act shipping waiver to address domestic oil supply issues amid the ongoing Iran conflict. The market for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.2% YES, down from 3% yesterday.
The extension targets the domestic oil supply crunch caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The move lowers the probability of a near-term crude oil price spike, and the market for crude oil hitting $90 by June could see further declines. At 1.2% YES, traders see almost no chance of an all-time high within the next week.
The April 30 all-time high market has daily volume at $72,279 in face value but only $2,006 in actual USDC. Just $1,020 would move the price by 5 percentage points, making it vulnerable to swings from single large trades. The biggest move in the past 24 hours was the drop from 3% to 1.2% after the waiver news hit.
The waiver extension is an effort to contain oil price surges driven by geopolitical tensions, but it does not signal any de-escalation in Middle East hostilities. For traders, the low odds on the April 30 market mean limited upside for betting on a price spike. Buying YES at 1.2¢ would yield a 83.3x return, but that bet only pays off if you expect an imminent and drastic geopolitical shock.
Watch for OPEC+ announcements or significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy, as either could move the odds. The White House’s next decisions on strategic reserves or additional waivers will matter most.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/white-house-extends-jones-act-waiver-to-ease-oil-supply-amid-iran-conflict/
