Micron (MU) and Seagate (STX) Stock: AI Demand Drives 2026 Inventory Sellouts

TLDR

• Micron (MU) stock is up more than 70% year-to-date, yet still trades at just 8.4x forward earnings
• All of Micron’s 2026 HBM supply is fully sold out under long-term contracts driven by AI demand
• Next-gen HBM4 production began in April 2026, offering 2.8TB/s speeds and 20% better power efficiency than HBM3E
• Micron is lobbying for tighter U.S. export controls on chipmaking equipment to China
• Seagate (STX), the world’s largest HDD maker, also has its nearline drives sold out for 2026

Micron Technology (MU) has had a breakout run over the past year, climbing more than 70% year-to-date. Despite that move, the stock still trades at just 8.4x forward earnings, which analysts consider undervalued.

Micron Technology, Inc., MU

The company’s high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products have been the main driver. HBM stacks chips vertically rather than horizontally, allowing far greater data throughput than standard DRAM. Micron’s HBM3E moves 1.2TB of data per second and uses 30% less power than rival products.

Nvidia chose Micron as a primary HBM supplier for its Blackwell GPU lineup. That deal helped push demand well past available supply. All of Micron’s 2026 HBM capacity is now fully allocated under long-term agreements.

Mass production of Micron’s next-generation HBM4 began in April 2026. It raises throughput to over 2.8TB/s and improves power efficiency by more than 20% over HBM3E. Prices for the new product have risen more than 50%.

Export Controls Add a Policy Angle

Micron is actively lobbying Washington to tighten U.S. export controls on advanced chipmaking equipment sold to China. The company argues stricter rules are a national security issue. But the move also has a competitive dimension.

If equipment exports to Chinese chipmakers are restricted, rivals like Samsung, SK Hynix, and domestic Chinese DRAM producers could face slower capacity growth. That would keep Micron’s contracted position in AI memory more secure. However, tighter rules could also limit Micron’s own access to end markets in mainland China and invite policy countermeasures.

Analysts have flagged high non-cash earnings and insider selling as risks worth watching alongside the policy debate.

Seagate Riding the Same Wave

Seagate Technology (STX) is benefiting from the same AI infrastructure buildout. As the world’s largest hard disk drive maker, Seagate serves a different part of the storage stack. Roughly 90% of AI-generated data ends up stored on HDDs, which cost up to six times less per terabyte than solid-state drives.

Seagate’s HAMR technology underpins its Mozaic platform, which stores more than 4TB per platter — more than any competitor. This lets data centers more than double storage capacity without adding physical space.

Seagate’s nearline drives, the high-capacity units used in data centers, are sold out through 2026.

Both companies count hyperscalers — cloud giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon — among their largest customers. Capital expenditure plans from those customers are a key variable to watch. Any slowdown in hyperscaler spending could quickly shift the demand picture for both Micron and Seagate.

Micron began mass production of HBM4 in April 2026, with prices up more than 50% over prior generations.

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