Bitcoin News: Hayes Sees BTC Price at $125,000 This Year

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could reach $125,000 before the end of the year.
• He linked his forecast to expanding U.S. credit conditions and regulatory changes.
• Hayes stated that the Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio could unlock $1.3 trillion in new loans.
• He argued that banking multipliers could expand total liquidity to nearly $4 trillion.
• Hayes said rising U.S. defense spending near $1.5 trillion could inject more capital into the system.

Arthur Hayes projected that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 before year-end during remarks in Las Vegas. He linked this forecast to expanding U.S. credit, rising defense budgets, and regulatory adjustments. Hayes stated that these combined forces could lift the BTC price by 63% from $76,600.

Credit Expansion and BTC Price Outlook

Hayes said regulatory revisions increased lending power across major U.S. banks. He cited the Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio, which took effect on April 1. He explained that the rule allows banks to hold fewer reserves against assets. As a result, large lenders such as JPMorgan Chase and Citibank can extend more credit.

According to S&P Global estimates, the change could release about $1.3 trillion in new loans. Hayes argued that banking multipliers could expand that figure to nearly $4 trillion. He said this liquidity would offset prior credit tightening tied to artificial intelligence. Hayes described AI as “the new subprime” and linked it to workforce cuts and lower software revenue.

He referred to Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak and the subsequent 50% decline. He said technology indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite stayed relatively steady during that period. However, Bitcoin fell sharply, which he attributed to reduced demand for SaaS services. He stated that renewed credit growth could now reverse that pressure and support the BTC price.

Defense Spending and Policy Shifts Support $125,000 Target

Hayes said markets have shifted attention from AI-driven deflation to wartime inflation. He pointed to rising tensions following the U.S.–Iran conflict in February. He noted that Bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq, gold, and silver since hostilities began. Hayes linked this performance to higher government spending expectations.

He cited projected U.S. defense outlays nearing $1.5 trillion. He said higher military budgets would inject capital into the financial system. Hayes stated, “The U.S. will print more money and buy more bombs.” He argued that such conditions historically favor Bitcoin’s performance.

Hayes also addressed concerns about tighter monetary policy under incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. He mentioned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in connection with debt management. He stated that U.S. debt now exceeds $38 trillion, which requires a stable demand for Treasurys. Hayes said authorities could adjust bank reserve practices to sustain liquidity.

He explained that banks may exchange reserves for Treasurys and repurchase agreements. He argued that these structural measures would keep capital circulating. Hayes said foreign demand for U.S. Treasurys has plateaued in recent years. He concluded that domestic institutions must absorb new issuance, which supports continued credit expansion.

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