Oracle (ORCL) Stock Falls 7% as OpenAI Misses Revenue and User Targets

TLDR

• Oracle stock dropped up to 7.6% in premarket trading Tuesday after a WSJ report revealed OpenAI missed internal user and revenue targets.
• Oracle holds a $300 billion, five-year cloud computing deal with OpenAI — the majority of its cloud backlog.
• SoftBank fell 9.9% and CoreWeave dropped 7.6% in premarket as the OpenAI concerns spread.
• A hedge fund veteran warned Oracle’s debt load is being understated due to off-balance-sheet project financing structures.
• 34 of 44 analysts still rate Oracle a Buy, with Wedbush’s Dan Ives maintaining an Outperform rating and $225 price target.

Oracle (ORCL) stock slid as much as 7.6% in premarket trading on Tuesday after a Wall Street Journal report raised fresh doubts about OpenAI’s ability to meet its spending commitments.

Oracle Corporation, ORCL

OpenAI reportedly missed internal targets for both user growth and revenue in recent months. The company had aimed to reach 1 billion weekly active users by the end of 2025 but fell short.

It also missed multiple monthly revenue targets earlier this year, as competition in coding and enterprise AI services heated up.

ChatGPT’s share of generative AI web traffic dropped from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January 2026. Gemini climbed from 5.7% to 21.5% over the same period.

OpenAI’s CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly raised concerns internally about whether the company can meet future computing contract obligations if revenue growth doesn’t pick up.

That’s a direct problem for Oracle. The cloud giant holds a $300 billion, five-year agreement to supply computing power to OpenAI — and that deal makes up the bulk of Oracle’s massive cloud backlog.

Oracle’s remaining performance obligations have surged 325% to $553 billion. The company is also raising $50 billion through debt and equity to fund new data center capacity.

The catch? Most of that revenue from the OpenAI deal isn’t expected to kick in until next year. Oracle is spending now and waiting.

Concerns Over Oracle’s Debt Load

Hedge fund veteran George Noble, formerly of Fidelity, went further than most in his criticism. He warned that Oracle is using project financing structures to keep tens of billions in borrowing off its balance sheet entirely.

He also suggested recent earnings performance may be propped up by accounting adjustments and cost-cutting, warning the broader narrative could “end HORRIBLY.”

Oracle’s stock has already pulled back sharply — it’s down around 50% from its 52-week high hit last September.

The pain spread beyond Oracle. SoftBank, which owns 13% of OpenAI, dropped 9.9% in Tokyo. CoreWeave, which has cloud deals with OpenAI worth up to $22.4 billion, fell 7.6% in premarket.

Analysts Still Largely Bullish

Despite the turbulence, Wall Street hasn’t turned on Oracle en masse. Of 44 analysts tracked by Koyfin, 34 rate the stock Buy or higher, with a price target implying roughly 40% upside.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives reiterated his Outperform rating and $225 target as recently as April 24. He argued the market is misreading Oracle’s heavy spending as a risk rather than a long-term infrastructure play.

Ives said Oracle has already shored up its balance sheet by raising $30 billion through investment-grade bonds and preferred stock.

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