XRP Price Awaits Direction as 36.8B XRP Holders Sit at Loss

XRP, the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is down 1.4% during Tuesday’s U.S. market hours to trade at $1.38. The downtick followed Bitcoin’s pullback as its associated spot ETFs recorded a notable outflow yesterday, ending a 9-day inflow streak. However, the price correction is currently considered a post-rally cool-off as a substantial number of XRP are moving out of the exchange. Here’s the key level that could kickstart recovery in XRP price.

XRP ETF Inflows Hit 2026 High as 34.9M Token Outflow Hints at Supply Shock 

In April 2026, U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted $81.63 million in net inflows – the highest monthly inflows of the year and a complete reversal of March’s outflows. 

This continued institutional investment has driven net inflows across the XRP ETF complex to a fresh record high of nearly $1.29 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. Significantly, there have been no significant outflows from the funds for three weeks, suggesting continued interest, especially from institutional investors, led by Bitwise.

This buoyant performance contrasts with XRP’s price performance, which has been relatively flat over the same time frame. Although the spot price has yet to decisively break out, strong ETF inflows reflect some accumulation and institutional confidence.

Further strengthening the bullish on-chain narrative, 34.94 million XRP flowed as net exchange outflows on the XRP Ledger in a single day – the sixth-largest 24-hour outflow in 2026. These significant transfers from exchanges into private wallets have historically led to price gains by decreasing supply and sell-side pressure.

In aggregate, both the strong ETF inflows and high exchange outflows indicate that savvy money is stocking up as the market is distracted by other matters. Such a divergence scenario tends to resolve itself in favor of the side exhibiting capital allocation, and may bode well for XRP’s performance once resistance is broken.

XRP Price Nearing Major Breakout From Bear Pennant Pattern

Following a sharp correction in January 2026, the XRP price shifted its trajectory to sideways above the $1.2 floor. The daily chart highlights a steady consolidation trend within two converging trendlines indicating the formation of a bearish continuation pattern called inverted pennant pattern.

Theoretically, the current lateral trend in XRP should allow sellers to recoup their exhausted bearish momentum and trigger the next breakdown. Currently, the Ripple XRP-1.87% cryptocurrency is less than 1% from rechallenging the bottom support. 

A potential breakdown from the support will intensify the selling pressure on XRP and plunge it to $1.28 support, followed by a dip to $1.125.

On the contrary, if the buyers continue to defend the bottom trendline, the XRP could rebound towards the $1.44 price level and retest the pennant resistance. Interestingly, the $1.44 level stands as a major supply wall against for coin holders as roughly 1.28 billion XRP is currently held at a loss below this level.

As a result, a price retest to these levels allow market participants to sell at a breakeven value, creating a structural barrier for holders.

That said, a potential breakout from this resistance will also trigger a shift in sentiment and invalidate the bearish pattern. A sustainable recovery above $1.44 will reduce panic selling from investors, bolstering Ripple crypto for a rally towards $1.8.