Tom Lee: S&P 500 7,700 Likely, What About Bitcoin?

• Tom Lee says the S&P 500 above 7,700 is very probable, citing strong earnings and resilience.
• The US stock market added over $10 trillion in 29 days, posting its highest-ever daily close.
• Bitcoin is 40% below all-time highs while stocks hit records, creating a rare divergence.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is making one of his most confident market calls of the year. Speaking Monday, the strategist said the S&P 500 pushing above 7,700 in 2026 is “very probable,” pointing to an economy that has demonstrated remarkable resilience through a period that threatened to derail the entire bull market.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, posting its highest daily close, while the US stock market added more than $10 trillion in market value over just 29 trading days in what analysts are calling the biggest reversal in decades.

Three Risks, Three Tests Passed

Lee framed the recovery around three specific risks markets had to absorb at the start of the year. The first was the Iran conflict and the possibility of wider escalation. The second was stress in the private credit market. The third was uncertainty around the incoming Federal Reserve chair.

His assessment is that markets have navigated all three more cleanly than most expected. “We came out the other side of this Iran war with the economy showing remarkable strength,” Lee said. “In fact, earnings estimates have been going up. So I think we passed that test.”

Bitcoin Is the Outlier

Against that backdrop, one asset is conspicuously lagging. Bitcoin remains roughly 40% below its all-time high even as US equities set new records. The divergence has drawn attention from crypto analysts who argue that Bitcoin should logically be tracking toward $90,000 to $95,000 given the equity market’s performance.

However, one user said that the lag versus equities is itself a signal, but cautioned that confirmation matters more than optimism. Bitcoin reclaiming the $80,000 to $82,000 range, alongside stabilization in the ETH to BTC ratio and broader liquidity conditions, would be the confirmation needed before calling a genuine catch-up trade.

For now, stocks are at all-time highs, and Bitcoin is not. That gap will either close, or it will say something important about where crypto actually stands in the current market cycle.

Related: Crypto Analysts Say a Bitcoin Reversal is Due, But When Will it Begin?