Tesla (TSLA) Stock Struggles as Robotaxi Delays Offset Q1 EPS Beat

TLDR

• NHTSA closed its investigation into 2023 Model Y steering wheel bolts with no recall required
• TSLA is down 16% year to date, opening Tuesday at $378.67
• Q1 EPS beat estimates ($0.41 vs $0.39), but revenue missed at $22.39B vs $22.96B expected
• Tesla’s $25B 2026 capex plan could push free cash flow negative
• Robotaxi and Optimus rollouts are slower than expected, keeping investors cautious

Tesla (TSLA) got a minor regulatory win Tuesday, but it wasn’t enough to move the needle.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

NHTSA closed its investigation into missing steering wheel bolts on roughly 120,000 2023 Model Y vehicles, finding no safety defect and requiring no recall. The stock barely reacted, edging up 0.4% in early trading before slipping back into the red.

TSLA opened Tuesday at $378.67, down 16% for the year. The S&P 500 was off 0.5% on the same day.

Recalls rarely move Tesla’s stock price in a meaningful way. The NHTSA probe was a potential overhang, but its quiet closure didn’t give bulls much to work with.

The bigger story remains Tesla’s Q1 earnings, reported April 22nd. The company earned $0.41 per share, beating the $0.39 consensus. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, short of the $22.96 billion estimate. Year-over-year revenue was up 15.8%.

Physical AI Slower Than Expected

The miss on revenue didn’t spark a selloff on its own. What’s weighing on the stock is the pace of Tesla’s push into what it calls “physical AI” — robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas in June, but expansion to other cities has been slower than investors hoped. Optimus deployment timelines have also stretched out.

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu put it plainly on Monday: “Scaling physical AI ain’t easy.” Yu rates the stock Buy with a $465 price target.

Yu added that while capex related to semiconductors and solar is rising, it was well communicated. Still, he said it would be hard for the stock to build momentum “until some of these major physical AI efforts show meaningful progress on the commercial/operational front.”

Tesla has flagged a $25 billion capex plan for 2026. That level of spending is expected to push free cash flow negative for the year, which rattled investors when it was disclosed.

Analysts Divided on Valuation

Wall Street is split on Tesla. New price targets range from $220 to $428. The average analyst target sits at $398.42, with the consensus rating at Hold. Of 41 analysts tracked, 19 rate it Buy, 16 Hold, and 6 Sell.

Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating with a $510 target. Canaccord raised its target from $420 to $450, maintaining Buy. BNP Paribas upgraded the stock from Underperform to Neutral. HSBC initiated coverage with a Buy.

Wealthfront Advisers added 14,419 shares in Q4, bringing its total to 408,545, valued at around $183.7 million. Institutional investors hold 66.2% of the stock.

On the insider side, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,264 shares in March at $397.03 each. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 25,809 shares at $359.33 in late March. Insiders have sold a combined 53,804 shares worth over $20.8 million in the last quarter.

Tesla’s 50-day moving average stands at $385.16. Its 200-day moving average is $420.14. The stock’s 52-week range is $270.78 to $498.83.

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