Kalshi bettors prediction Powell to stay as Fed Governor

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to stay on for a short time after his term as head of the central bank is over, bettors on prediction markets platform Kalshi estimate.

Bettors place a 30% chance Powell resigns as a member of the Fed Board of Governors by June. However, bettors are more confident that he does that by August or the end of the year, with 66% and 81% odds, respectively.

Powell said after the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting he would not step down as a governor until the criminal inquiry into him by the Department of Justice was resolved. On Friday, the justice department dropped its probe into Powell.

When that happened, odds that Powell would resign by June surged to nearly 54.5%, but they have fallen in the days since. 

However, Polymarket bettors see Powell stepping aside imminently. They give it an 87% chance he steps down between May 15 and May 22. 

Powell is set to address reporters after the Fed meeting on Wednesday, likely his last as Fed chief — so long as President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, receives senate approval by the next meeting in the middle of June. Powell is expected to field questions about his plans at the news conference, which is slated for 2:30 p.m. ET.

Warsh’s nomination advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning. 

Trump and Powell have clashed since the president’s second term began last year. The White House has been frustrated that the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates as quickly or as sharply as the Trump administration would like. Some observers worry Trump selected Warsh to push his perspective on rates, though Warsh has pushed back on those concerns, saying he believes in the independence of the Fed.

If Powell doesn’t resign until August, he would stay on for two more meetings, the one in June and another in late July. Powell’s term as a Governor lasts until 2028. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

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