Fed meeting sees highest dissent since 1992, no rate cut expected

The April 29 FOMC meeting recorded the highest number of dissenting votes since October 1992, and the market for a 25 bps cut after the April meeting sits at 0% YES despite Governor Stephen Miran’s call for a rate cut.

Market reaction

The dissent split in both directions. Miran pushed for easing, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposed the easing bias and leaned hawkish. Odds for a 50+ bps cut also sit at 0% YES. No significant shifts in odds have followed the internal policy rift. The market’s face value for these bets is in the millions, but actual USDC traded is much lower. It takes $1,966 to move the 25 bps market 5 percentage points, making it susceptible to larger orders.

Why it matters

This level of FOMC dissent hasn’t occurred in over 30 years. The split runs in opposite directions, with one governor wanting cuts and three officials resisting the easing bias, which means the committee is not converging on any single path. That internal fracture could produce abrupt policy shifts if economic data changes meaningfully.

What to watch

At 0.1¢, a YES share on a 25 bps cut offers a massive potential payout, but it’s a bet against current policy signals. Traders would need strong conviction that the Fed will pivot sharply in the coming meetings. Track unemployment and inflation data closely, since any large moves there could reprice these markets fast. Comments from Fed Chair Powell and other FOMC members on the dissent itself will also matter.

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