SanDisk (SNDK) Stock Declines 5% After Stellar Q3 Earnings Report

Key Takeaways

• Q3 revenue reached $5.95B, representing a year-over-year increase of 251% and exceeding analyst projections of $4.73B.
• Earnings per share (adjusted) landed at $23.41, crushing Wall Street’s $14.66 forecast by $8.75.
• Shares initially jumped following the announcement but retreated approximately 5% during Friday’s premarket session.
• Revenue from datacenter operations climbed 233% sequentially, propelled by a 137% increase in pricing throughout all business units.
• Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $7.75B–$8.25B significantly surpassed the Street’s $6.65B expectation.

SanDisk delivered what many consider one of its most impressive quarterly performances on Thursday, handily surpassing both revenue and profit expectations set by Wall Street analysts. Yet shares experienced a roughly 5% decline in Friday’s premarket trading, despite management presenting an optimistic outlook for the quarters ahead.

Third-quarter revenue totaled $5.95 billion, marking a dramatic 251% climb compared to the same period last year. This figure easily eclipsed the analyst consensus estimate of $4.73 billion. On the earnings front, adjusted EPS registered at $23.41, demolishing the Street’s $14.66 projection by nearly $9 per share.

Prior to the pullback, the stock had reached approximately $1,096.51, hovering close to its 52-week peak of $1,115.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

The datacenter division emerged as the undisputed growth driver. Datacenter revenue skyrocketed 233% on a sequential basis, buoyed by pricing increases of 137% spanning all product categories. While consumer and client segments experienced declines, the datacenter business more than compensated for these shortfalls.

Long-Term Agreements Strengthen Revenue Foundation

SanDisk executed five multi-year agreements during Q3 and early Q4. Three contracts were finalized within the third quarter, while two additional deals closed in the fourth quarter. The three Q3 agreements alone are projected to deliver a minimum of $42 billion in contracted revenue, recognized on a quarterly basis.

The company also secured downside protection. SanDisk has locked in $11 billion in guaranteed payments should customers withdraw from their capacity obligations — providing crucial insurance against potential market downturns.

Pricing strength has extended across the entire product portfolio. AI-driven supply constraints in the NAND memory sector have enabled SanDisk to implement higher pricing, and the forthcoming introduction of BiCS8-based QLC enterprise SSDs is anticipated to sustain this favorable trend.

Analyst Community Responds

Wall Street analysts moved quickly to revise their price objectives upward.

BofA Securities elevated its price target to $1,550 from $1,080, reaffirming its Buy rating. The firm highlighted valuation opportunities, underappreciated joint venture holdings, and anticipated enterprise SSD market share expansion through 2026.

Raymond James increased its target to $1,470 from $725, describing the datacenter inflection as “clear” and commending the company’s strengthening customer partnerships.

Mizuho boosted its target to $1,220 from $1,000 while maintaining an Outperform rating.

Notwithstanding the positive sentiment, InvestingPro noted the stock appears overvalued when measured against its Fair Value calculation — although analysts are projecting full-year earnings of $44.72 per share.

For the fourth quarter, SanDisk provided revenue guidance ranging from $7.75B to $8.25B, with non-GAAP diluted EPS anticipated between $30.00 and $33.00. This outlook implies approximately 35% sequential revenue expansion. Fourth-quarter gross margins are projected to reach around 80%, exceeding the 74% consensus and representing a year-over-year improvement of roughly 5,400 basis points.

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