Strategy (MSTR) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Q1 Earnings Tuesday

TLDR

• Strategy has paused Bitcoin purchases this week ahead of its Q1 earnings report on Tuesday
• The company holds 818,334 BTC, roughly 3.9% of Bitcoin’s total supply
• Wall Street expects a per-share loss of between $3.41 and $27.33 for Q1
• Revenue is forecast at ~$125 million, up ~12.6% year-over-year
• Concerns are growing over Strategy’s STRC preferred share dividend yield of 11.5%

Michael Saylor announced Sunday that Strategy will not be buying Bitcoin this week. “No buys this week. Back to work next week,” he posted on X.

It’s only the second pause in purchases this year. The last time Strategy skipped a weekly buy was the week of March 23–29.

Strategy’s most recent purchase came between April 20–26, when the company added 3,273 BTC for $255 million, at an average price of $77,906 per coin. That was disclosed in an 8-K filing with the SEC on April 27.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

The company now holds 818,334 BTC in total. Bitcoin was trading around $80,100 on Monday morning, up roughly 20% over the past month.

Strategy’s cost basis sits at $75,537 per coin. That means the company is currently sitting on a paper gain at current prices.

Tuesday’s Q1 earnings report is the main event. Wall Street analysts expect revenue of around $125 million, up about 12.6% from $111.1 million in the same period last year.

That would be a solid improvement after revenue fell 3.6% in Q1 2025. It suggests the underlying software business is still moving in the right direction.

What the Loss Estimates Say

Earnings are a different story. Depending on the source, analyst estimates for the per-share loss range from $3.41 (Zacks) to $27.33 (Yahoo Finance average). A separate estimate puts the loss at $18.98 per share.

The wide range reflects the complexity of Strategy’s mark-to-market Bitcoin accounting, which can swing results dramatically based on BTC’s price movements during the quarter.

The company’s STRC preferred shares are also under the microscope. STRC offers an 11.5% annualized dividend yield and is designed to trade near $100.

STRC Dividend Under Scrutiny

Critics argue the dividend structure carries risk. Blogger Joseph Parrish, writing on Seeking Alpha on April 28, said current cash reserves may not cover two years of STRC dividends. He rates MSTR a “Hold.”

Not everyone agrees. TipRanks shows a consensus “Strong Buy” rating on MSTR from Wall Street analysts.

Strategy is no longer being valued as a software company. Investors are treating it as a Bitcoin financing vehicle, meaning Tuesday’s results will likely be judged on the strength of Saylor’s capital-raising model more than operating performance.

Saylor is also scheduled to speak at the Consensus conference in Miami Beach on Wednesday.

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