Iran Not Likely Getting Its Air Force Upgraded By Russia Or China Soon

In a hugely consequential claim, a member of Iran’s parliament announced on Tuesday that not only will Iran soon receive its long-awaited Su-35 Flanker fighter jets from Russia, but it already has new MiG-29 Fulcrums as a stopgap. Furthermore, he claimed, Iran is receiving both Russian S-400 and Chinese HQ-9 strategic air defense missile systems. Iran analysts are, to say the least, highly skeptical.

“Russian MiG-29 fighter jets have arrived in Iran and are stationed in Shiraz, while Sukhoi Su-35 jets are also on the way,” Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of the national security committee of Iran’s parliament, told Iranian media, according to a translation by the London-based Iran International.

If even partially true, Zohrevand’s claim would indicate that Tehran is rapidly reinforcing its severely battered air defense in the aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel in June.

Analysts are beyond skeptical.

“I don’t believe there is any truth in the claims made by the Iranian parliament member,” Farzin Nadimi, a defence and security analyst and Senior Fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told me.

“At best, it could be a desire or request communicated to the Russians by the extremely worried Iranians, but chances of it, or a HQ-9B delivery by China, happening in the foreseeable future is close to zero.”

Arash Azizi, a visiting fellow at Boston U and author of ‘The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran’s Global Ambitions,’ concurs.

“There is almost definitely no truth to these assertions,” he told me. “Certainly no sign that Russia is changing its mind on the S-400.”

“Iran now even denies that it’s interested.”

Reports in recent years suggested that, as part of the unprecedented Iran-Russia military-technical cooperation, which saw the former supply the latter thousands of drones following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Iran sought advanced S-400 missile defense systems. Interestingly, Iran’s ambassador to Russia recently denied this was ever the case.

“Someone must provide a document showing that the Islamic Republic of Iran has requested the S-400 from Russia,” Kazem Jalali said in an interview with local Iranian media in mid-September.

Furthermore, on July 8, China officially rejected reports that it had delivered HQ-9B air defense missiles to Iran in the immediate aftermath of the June war.

And that’s not even mentioning the many times that Iranian officials have, at best, prematurely announced an imminent delivery of Su-35s, which would mark the first time Tehran imported a fighter jet in about 35 years. Iran reportedly ordered and paid for 50 Su-35s by 2021, but there’s no confirmation it has received a single one—aside from an unconfirmed November 2024 report claimed that Moscow delivered at least two Su-35SEs.

In mid-2023, Iranian media suggested that the first Su-35s would arrive in the coming weeks. Of course, that didn’t happen. Another Iranian media report in April 2024, from a network affiliated with Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary, claimed the first Su-35s would arrive within a week, a claim that was officially denied within hours.

Consequently, any claim of an imminent arrival of these Russian fighter jets should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

Zohrevand’s claim about an interim delivery of MiG-29s is interesting. Tehran bought a fleet of MiG-29s, original MiG-29A models, from Moscow in the final months of the Soviet Union. Zohrevand claimed the new MiGs Moscow allegedly delivered are a stopgap solution until Tehran finally acquires its “long-term solution” in the form of the Su-35s.

Iran did acquire Russian Yak-130 trainer jets in September 2023, which suggested that Su-35s may follow soon. There has been no verification that Iran has received a single Flanker, nor any alleged stopgap Fulcrums.

“Zohrevand, who served as Iran’s ambassador to Italy and Afghanistan under (former Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad, is a questionable figure, known for making outlandish claims like those of his former boss,” Azizi said.

“This is part of a panic mode in Tehran, faced with the snapback (UN nuclear sanctions), with hardliners hoping to boast about ties with Russia and China (and even non-Western countries such as India) as a replacement.”

Asked why the member of parliament might lie about a new MiG-29 delivery specifically, Azizi reasoned that there isn’t a “certain logic” behind such statements.

“He just makes them up and hopes to get away with them.”