Will Toncoin price drop under $2 as bearish crossover nears confirmation?

Toncoin price has pulled back sharply over the past several days after a strong breakout rally earlier this month pushed the token to its highest level in weeks.

According to data from crypto.news, Toncoin (TON) dropped to around $2.16 at press time on May 13 after briefly climbing as high as $2.90 during the recent rally. Despite the correction, the token still remains well above its April lows near the $1.20 region.

The recent rally came as investor sentiment around the TON ecosystem improved following renewed activity across Telegram-linked crypto applications and a broader recovery in trading activity surrounding TON-based assets. Speculation surrounding deeper Telegram integration with blockchain services also helped improve short-term momentum earlier this month.

However, the latest pullback suggests that bullish momentum may already be fading after the sharp vertical rally. Traders appear to have started locking in profits as TON struggled to sustain momentum near the upper resistance zone around $2.80–$2.90.

At the same time, broader on-chain activity across the TON ecosystem remains relatively weak compared to peak levels seen last year. Decentralized finance participation and transaction activity have yet to fully recover, while several TON-linked gaming and tap-to-earn tokens continue trading significantly below their previous highs.

Meanwhile, derivatives sentiment has also started cooling after the recent rally, with traders becoming increasingly cautious as TON approaches a key technical inflection point.

On the daily chart, Toncoin recently surged from below $1.40 to nearly $2.90 before entering a downward-sloping consolidation pattern that resembles a potential bull flag.

Bull flags are typically considered continuation patterns that emerge after a strong impulsive rally, often signaling temporary consolidation before another breakout attempt higher.

TON continues holding above the key psychological support near $2, suggesting buyers are still defending the broader breakout structure despite the recent cooldown.

However, momentum indicators are beginning to soften. The MACD histogram has started fading, while the MACD lines are approaching a potential bearish crossover, signaling that short-term momentum may continue cooling before the next major move develops.

If bulls manage to push above the upper boundary of the flag near $2.30, the token could attempt another rally toward the recent high near $2.90. A successful breakout above that region may then open the door toward the psychological $3 level.

On the downside, failure to hold above the $2 support zone could invalidate the bullish continuation setup and potentially trigger a deeper correction toward the $1.80 region.