Dollar Index (DXY) trend chart. Source: TradingView { “lineWidth”: 2, “lineType”: 0, “chartType”: “candlesticks”, “fontColor”: “rgb(106, 109, 120)”, “gridLineColor”: “rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.06)”, “volumeUpColor”: “rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)”, “volumeDownColor”: “rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)”, “backgroundColor”: “#0F0F0F”, “widgetFontColor”: “#DBDBDB”, “upColor”: “#22ab94”, “downColor”: “#f7525f”, “borderUpColor”: “#22ab94”, “borderDownColor”: “#f7525f”, “wickUpColor”: “#22ab94”, “wickDownColor”: “#f7525f”, “colorTheme”: “dark”, “isTransparent”: false, “locale”: “en”, “chartOnly”: false, “scalePosition”: “right”, “scaleMode”: “Normal”, “fontFamily”: “-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif”, “valuesTracking”: “1”, “changeMode”: “price-and-percent”, “symbols”: [ [ “CAPITALCOM:DXY|1D” ] ], “dateRanges”: [ “1d|1”, “1m|30”, “3m|60”, “12m|1D”, “60m|1W”, “all|1M” ], “fontSize”: “10”, “headerFontSize”: “medium”, “autosize”: false, “width”: 800, “height”: 500, “noTimeScale”: false, “hideDateRanges”: false, “hideMarketStatus”: false, “hideSymbolLogo”: false } “` “`html
The external signals
“`
However, there are also two external signals.
The first, very important, came yesterday when the news spread that Trump would have signed an executive order to make it easier for American pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies.
The official news of the signing of the executive order then arrived today, but yesterday the mere rumor was enough to drive the price of BTC up from less than 115,000 to almost 117,000 USD.
In reality, this news could have positive effects especially in the medium/long term, but the markets have still taken it well even in the short term.
The second signal is more complex.
It derives from the appointment of Stephen Miran as a member of the Fed Board following the resignation of Adriana Kugler.
Miran is indeed the ideologue behind Trump’s trade policy based on tariffs, and one of the pillars of that ideology is the weakening of the dollar to favor exports.
Note that the Dollar Index during 2025 has already fallen significantly, from about 110 points down to below 96 points. In the last two months, it has then risen above 98 points, but if the Fed follows Trump’s line aimed at weakening the dollar, in the future it could also fall much lower.
The speculative bubble
The month of July ended with a BTC price candlestick very similar to that of August 2017, when compared with the trend of the Dollar Index.
At the time, in September, there was a correction followed in October by a strong recovery of the bull run that led to the swelling of a mega-speculative bubble that burst only in the second half of December.
Moreover, until today it has always been this way in the year following the US presidential elections, since Bitcoin has existed, except in 2009 when BTC was not yet tradable on any exchange, and it essentially had zero value.
Therefore, it is possible that this year as well, at the end of the year, another speculative bubble could inflate on the price of BTC, the magnitude of which could depend also and especially on the trend of the Dollar Index.
If August were to close with a candle similar to that of September 2017, one could theoretically expect a September 2025 in which the price of BTC resumes growing, with perhaps the swelling of another speculative bubble between October and November.
