Bitcoin performance: is today a positive day?

Yesterday some signals emerged that at least allow us to hypothesize that today could be a positive day for the trend of Bitcoin’s price. 

The sentiment actually still seems relatively negative, but yesterday at a certain point things seemed to change slightly. 

In fact, the day had started very badly, but a few hours after the reopening of the US stock markets there seems to have been a turning point, thanks to which not only did the decline end, but there were also signs of a possible rebound. 

The sentiment

Yesterday the Fear&Greed Index remained in the fear zone. 

Last week it was just below the central neutrality line, but starting from Friday it began to fall. 

This index is very useful because it suggests what the sentiment is (which yesterday turned out to be slightly negative), but it cannot be used to make predictions. 

In fact, it is an index that measures retail sentiment, and retail investors/speculators are not at all a good litmus test. However, the decline of recent days could actually mean that retail investors are wrong to have a negative sentiment during this period. 

The positive signals

In fact, three bullish on-chain signals have recently emerged.

These are signals detected by Santiment, according to which, for example, at this moment there are more bearish than bullish comments circulating about Bitcoin, for the first time since April 21.

This actually should be interpreted as a positive signal, because as Santiment points out, historically cryptocurrencies move in the opposite direction to the expectations of ordinary people (that is, retail). Therefore the current level of pessimism among retail traders should be considered a good sign. 

Precisely while retail investors are selling, the holders of the largest amounts of BTC are buying, with wallets holding at least 100 BTC up by 11.2% compared to a year ago.

According to Santiment, this is a significant long-term trend, because wallets of this size are often associated with whales, large investors, institutions, and highly capitalized long-term holders. Moreover, historically the increase in the number of whale-wallets is seen as a signal that key stakeholders still have confidence in the future value and scarcity of Bitcoin. 

To all this must be added that, as revealed by Delphi Digital, the 8% retracement of the price of gold from its January peak could precede a Bitcoin bull run, as has already happened in the past, although usually with shorter time frames. 

The trend change

As far as the short term is concerned, a trend change may have occurred between yesterday and today. 

Starting from last Thursday, a decline was triggered that continued until yesterday, and that took BTC from $82,000 down to $76,000.

Yesterday it seemed that this decline could continue, but a few hours after the reopening of the US stock markets it stopped. 

But the most interesting thing happened in the evening, that is, a few hours before the close of the US stock market session. In fact, at that point a new small upward trend may even have begun. 

To tell the truth, at the price level this upward trend is not yet visible, but it could also just be a delayed trigger. Although the potential trend change already started yesterday evening, it did not materialize with the close of the US markets, nor did it occur after the reopening of the Asian and European markets. 

Today, however, it could in theory materialize at the reopening of the US stock markets. 

The whales

Starting from last Friday, the whales trading Bitcoin began to sell and to open new short (bearish) positions. 

This continued even yesterday, after the reopening of the Asian markets, but before the reopening of the American ones. 

In fact, American whales were much more cautious yesterday than Asian ones, so much so that within a few hours they literally changed their minds, going from bearish to bullish. 

Indeed, yesterday a potentially bullish figure was released, even though in theory it was published only late yesterday evening after the markets had closed. 

This concerns the dollars on deposit in the accounts of the US government, which on Friday fell by 43 billion. In other words, on Friday the US government released 43 billion dollars onto the markets in a single day. 

However, it is possible that some whales had this data, or similar data, already a few hours earlier, and this would explain their U-turn during the day. 

Now, however, we will have to wait for the reopening of the US stock markets to understand whether American whales remain convinced of all this, and therefore continue to buy and open new long (bullish) positions, or whether they will change their minds again today.