Nebius (NBIS) Stock: Inside the Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia Deals Driving Growth

TLDR

• Nebius reported Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million, up 684% year-over-year, beating EPS estimates by 71.6%
• Citi raised its price target on NBIS to a Street-high $287, up from $169, maintaining a Buy rating
• The stock is up 138% year-to-date and 434% over the past 52 weeks, with a market cap around $55.65 billion
• Nebius holds a ~$27 billion deal with Meta and a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft; Nvidia invested $2 billion in March
• The company raised its 2026 capex outlook to $20–$25 billion, targeting a revenue run rate of $7–$9 billion by year-end

Nebius Group posted explosive first-quarter results and pulled in a fresh Street-high price target from Citi, putting it firmly in focus as an AI cloud name to watch.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% from $50.9 million a year earlier. That number shocked expectations. EPS came in at -$0.23 against a consensus estimate of -$0.81, a 71.6% upside surprise.

The stock jumped 15.72% on the day of earnings. It’s now up 138% year-to-date and 434% over the past 52 weeks.

Citi moved fast. Within days of the results, the bank lifted its price target to $287 from $169, the highest on the Street, and kept its Buy rating. The catalyst was clear: the scale of Nebius’s growth and the concrete infrastructure deals backing it.

Nebius’s AI Cloud segment led the charge, rising 841% to $390 million. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $53.7 million to a profit of $129.5 million. Net income from continuing operations flipped from a $104.3 million loss to a $621.2 million profit.

Not everything was clean. Adjusted net loss widened to $100.3 million from $83.6 million, reflecting the heavy spending required to scale. Nebius also raised its 2026 capex outlook to $20–$25 billion, up from $16–$20 billion.

Big Contracts, Bigger Ambitions

The company is backed by serious infrastructure commitments. A near $27 billion multi-year deal with Meta and a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft give it a long revenue runway. Nvidia invested $2 billion in March and is working with Nebius on cloud infrastructure for robotics and physical AI.

Nebius has started construction on a gigawatt-scale AI factory in Independence, Missouri. It also holds a 1.2 GW power agreement tied to a potential $20 billion U.S. expansion.

The company owns more than 75% of its contracted power capacity, an unusually high figure for an AI cloud player. That gives it better control over margins and costs versus peers who lease most of their footprint.

Acquisitions and Platform Moves

Nebius is expanding its platform through acquisitions. It plans to acquire Eigen AI to strengthen its Token Factory inference platform, and has brought on Clarifai’s core team and licensed inference IP to support model deployment.

It has also agreed to acquire Tavily, adding agentic search to its cloud offering. A partnership with CrowdStrike brings unified security across its next-generation cloud platform.

The company launched Nebius AI Cloud 3.5, which introduced serverless AI for developers who want on-demand compute without managing underlying hardware.

On the balance sheet, Nebius had $9.3 billion in cash against $8.4 billion in long-term debt as of Q1 end.

The company expects to exit 2026 at an annual revenue run rate of $7–$9 billion. Its next earnings report is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Analysts currently forecast EPS of -$0.69 for Q2 2026.

Across 14 analysts, the consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $205.20.

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