Someone Was Winning 98% of War Bets on Polymarket — and Experts Say It’s No Coincidence

TLDR

• Bubblemaps found 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98% win rate on U.S. military actions against Iran, which analysts say is statistically impossible by chance.
• Nine accounts made over $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations, with bets placed days before attacks occurred.
• Bubblemaps CEO warns that U.S. adversaries could monitor prediction markets to gain intelligence on American war plans.
• Lawmakers introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban war-related betting contracts on prediction markets.
• Sixteen states are in legal battles with prediction market platforms, and the CFTC has sued six states to assert federal regulatory authority.

A team at blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has uncovered a pattern of bets on prediction platform Polymarket that they say cannot be explained by luck.

The team, led by CEO Nicolas Vaiman, identified 80 bets placed on U.S. military actions against Iran. Those bets had a 98% win rate.

Nine connected accounts made more than $2.4 million, betting almost entirely on U.S. military operations. Bets were placed days before strikes on Iran, the removal of its supreme leader, and a ceasefire announcement on Feb. 28.

Vaiman told CoinDesk the traders also placed small losing bets on Feb. 20, likely to avoid drawing attention.

Bubblemaps made its findings public on May 18 through a series of posts on X, sharing data and graphics as evidence.

One confirmed case of insider trading has already led to an arrest. U.S. Army Green Beret Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke made $400,000 on Polymarket bets tied to a Venezuela raid he personally took part in.

A separate study found that just 3% of so-called “informed” traders drove the accuracy seen on these markets, while 97% did not.

National Security Concerns and Political Response

Vaiman warned that foreign adversaries could be monitoring these patterns to gain insight into U.S. military plans.

He also raised the possibility that governments could place fake bets to mislead adversaries, calling prediction markets “intelligence and information warfare tools.”

During the Iran strikes, some civilians reportedly checked Polymarket to decide whether to sleep in bunkers.

Congressman Mike Levin and Senator Adam Schiff have since introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would ban contracts tied to acts of war.

Polymarket, for its part, recently partnered with Chainalysis to add Wall Street-level oversight to its platform. The company has previously stated it uses AI and blockchain forensics to flag suspicious activity.

States vs. Federal Government

Separately, a legal battle is growing over who has the right to regulate prediction markets at all.

Sixteen states are now involved in legal proceedings against prediction market platforms. Minnesota became the first state to move toward an outright ban, after Governor Tim Walz signed legislation as part of a broader online safety package.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Minnesota and five other states — Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Illinois, and Arizona — arguing it holds exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts.

All six states sued by the CFTC have Democratic attorneys general, though states with Republican leadership have also taken action against prediction markets.

The CFTC won a preliminary injunction in Arizona, stopping the state from pursuing criminal charges against Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market. Other cases remain ongoing.

Legal experts say the dispute could ultimately reach the Supreme Court.

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