Nebius (NBIS) Stock: The Power Play Behind the 15% Single-Day Move

TLDR

• Nebius stock jumped 14.69% after announcing a strategic partnership with Bloom Energy to power its AI data centers with clean fuel cell technology.
• The first project will deliver 328 MW of installed capacity and is expected to come online later this year.
• Nebius is targeting 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by end of 2026 — roughly four to five times its 2025 capacity.
• The company has surpassed 3.5 GW of contracted power and raised its 2026 guidance to over 4 GW.
• Wall Street rates NBIS a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $221.71.

Nebius (NBIS) stock jumped 14.69% on Thursday after the AI data center operator announced a strategic partnership with Bloom Energy (BE), which rose 8.93% on the news.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

The deal will bring Bloom’s solid oxide fuel cell technology to Nebius’ expanding network of AI infrastructure. Fuel cells generate electricity without combustion, meaning low emissions, minimal water use, and fewer regulatory hurdles compared to traditional power systems.

That last point matters more than it sounds. Getting power online quickly is the real competitive edge right now.

The two companies expect their first joint project — carrying 328 MW of installed capacity — to begin operations later this year.

Power Is the Bottleneck

Electricity has become the single biggest constraint on AI data center growth. Every major hyperscaler from Amazon to Alphabet has flagged the same issue on recent earnings calls: demand for compute is outpacing available supply.

Nebius has built its business model around solving exactly that problem. The company offers customers access to dedicated AI infrastructure, next-generation GPUs, and secured power — all deployable on shorter lead times than hyperscalers typically offer.

In Q1, Nebius delivered on capacity commitments made to clients including Microsoft and Meta. It has now surpassed 3.5 GW of contracted power, ahead of its previous 3 GW target, and raised its 2026 contracted power guidance to more than 4 GW.

The company is targeting 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by the end of 2026, up from roughly 220 MW at the end of 2025.

Big Numbers, But Also Big Spending

Nebius is guiding for $3–$3.4 billion in revenue in 2026 and $7–$9 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR). If it hits 1 GW of connected power and monetizes at $11 million in ARR per MW, the theoretical run-rate reaches $11 billion.

Wall Street consensus for FY2027 revenue currently sits at $10.9 billion — suggesting the market is already pricing in the high end of guidance.

To fund this expansion, Nebius is spending $20–$25 billion in capex in 2026, roughly 600–800% of its revenue guidance for the same year. That capital has come partly from share issuances and convertible debt. The company has diluted its share count by approximately 6.4% since the 2025 low.

Management expects to rely heavily on customer prepayments going forward as well.

Despite the dilution, ARR per share is expected to grow by triple digits in 2026, which analysts say more than offsets the share count increase.

Of nine analyst ratings issued over the past three months, six are Buys and three are Holds. The average price target stands at $221.71, implying roughly 0.81% upside from current levels.

NBIS currently trades at a price-to-sales multiple of approximately 4.6x estimated FY2027 revenue, slightly above the industry average of 3.7x.

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