Binance Bitcoin inflows are flashing a warning signal

Binance has recorded net positive Bitcoin deposits for nearly 10 consecutive days. This had added fresh pressure to a market already struggling under geopolitical uncertainty and weakening ETF demand.

The global crypto market saw a marginal recovery after witnessing a sell-off last weekend. Its cumulative cap hovers around $2.57 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $60 billion. Bitcoin managed to reclaim the $77,000 mark after dipping to $74,000 levels.  

More than 16,000 BTC flow into Binance

According to data shared by Darkfost, Binance’s weekly average of inflows jumped from 378 BTC on May 16 to hit 1,190 BTC by May 25. This marks more than a threefold increase in less than 10 days. However, one of the largest spikes came on May 18 when more than 3,600 BTC reportedly flowed into Binance in a single day.

This has led Bitcoin reserves on the exchange to climb sharply over the past month. It added that Binance’s BTC reserves rebounded from around 616,000 BTC on April 24 to around 632,000 BTC on May 25. It turns out to be nearly 16,000 BTC flowing into the exchange in just one month.

The inflow trend on Binane looks concerning as exchange inflows are traditionally seen as a potential sell signal. This suggests that holders might want exposure or reposition defensively during uncertain market conditions.

Bitcoin price is marginally up over the last 24 hours. The 7-day index finally turned green while it is still down by 12% on YTD. Bitcoin is trading at $77,101 at the press time. Analysts now warn that Bitcoin’s recent recovery may be losing one of its strongest sources of support.

Only weeks ago, Bitcoin ETF holdings had nearly recovered from the massive sell-off that began back in November. The recent outflow seems to be reversing that trend. Sosovalue data shows that more than $1.2 billion fled out of Bitcoin ETFs over the last week. As of now, May has posted an outflow of $1 billion.

The traders are now watching whether ETF inflows will stabilize again. It can be an alarming situation if the outflows continue into next week.

Is smart money buying the dip? 

Alphractal reported that their “Whale vs Retail Delta” metric has caught a huge signal. It printed its strongest positive divergence since November 2024. This comes in as when some large accumulation signals made it to the market.

Cryptopolitan reported that Strategy is still going long on Bitcoin. In a fresh buy, it added another 24,869 BTC (approx worth $2 billion) to its bag last week. Strategy’s average purchase price hovers around $80,985. 

A dormant whale wallet dating back to 2013 got back into action. It reportedly moved 500 BTC after around 12 years. Alphractal in a post reported that wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC were on a buying spree. They have added around 47,000 BTC over the past two weeks.

The analyst sees that there is a gap between fearful retail positioning and whale accumulation. However, it could become important if macro conditions stabilize. For now, the market remains caught between two competing signals. 

On one side, Exchange inflows are rising while ETF outflows grow. However, the weak sentiment continues to point toward defensive positioning.  On the other hand, whales and long-term holders are making big moves. The larger players may still be treating the current weakness as a buying opportunity.

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