Why Intel (INTC) Stock Is Up 225% and Analysts Are Still Cautious

TLDR

• Intel opened at $119.84, up sharply from a one-year low of $18.97, marking a roughly 225% rise from depressed levels
• Q1 2026 EPS came in at $0.29, smashing the $0.01 consensus estimate; revenue hit $13.58 billion vs. $12.32 billion expected
• Revenue grew 7.4% year over year; Intel guided Q2 2026 EPS at $0.20
• Murphy Pohlad Asset Management trimmed its INTC stake by 5.5%, selling 8,370 shares, while larger funds like Vanguard and Capital World continued to build positions
• Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $81.52, well below the current trading price

Intel ($INTC) opened at $119.84 on Tuesday, a striking move for a stock that was trading near $18.97 just a year ago. That’s a rise of roughly 531% off its lows — a number that has analysts and investors paying close attention.

Intel Corporation, INTC

The rally follows a blowout earnings report on April 23rd. Intel posted EPS of $0.29 for the quarter, well ahead of the $0.01 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $13.58 billion, beating the $12.32 billion Wall Street had expected.

That’s a 7.4% increase in revenue compared to the same quarter last year, when the company earned $0.13 per share. The turnaround narrative around Intel is gaining traction.

Intel’s Q2 2026 guidance puts EPS at $0.20. Analysts on average expect the company to post $0.63 per share for the full year.

Despite the run-up, the stock still carries a negative net margin of 5.90%. Return on equity stands at a slim 0.39%, signaling the company still has ground to cover operationally.

Institutional Moves Tell Two Stories

Not everyone is adding to positions. Murphy Pohlad Asset Management cut its Intel stake by 5.5% in Q4, selling 8,370 shares and ending the period with 143,109 shares valued at around $5.28 million. INTC remains the firm’s 9th-largest holding at roughly 2.0% of the portfolio.

But the bigger picture among institutions is mostly positive. Capital World Investors grew its position by 32.5% in Q3, now holding over 86.5 million shares worth around $2.9 billion. Vanguard lifted its stake by 3.5% to over 404 million shares. AQR Capital jumped 61.3% in Q3, while Rafferty Asset Management grew its position by 66.4% in Q2. In total, 64.53% of Intel stock is held by institutional investors.

One notable insider move: EVP April Miller sold 40,256 shares on May 1st at an average price of $99.53, reducing her position by 27.70%. That transaction totaled roughly $4 million.

What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment is cautious overall, even as price targets have been moving higher. JPMorgan raised its target from $35 to $45 but kept an “underweight” rating. Jefferies lifted its target from $60 to $80 with a “hold.” Seaport Research went to $90 with a “buy” call.

The consensus average target sits at $81.52 — well below where the stock is currently trading. That gap is raising eyebrows.

Of 41 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 25 rate Intel a “Hold,” 11 say “Buy,” one gives it a “Strong Buy,” and four rate it a “Sell.”

Citigroup added a longer-term backdrop, arguing the server CPU market could reach $132 billion by 2030, with Intel still holding a leadership position.

Intel has also been pushing PC makers to adopt its latest chips, citing rising demand for AI PCs and tighter supply of advanced nodes.

The stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $75.94, and its 200-day moving average is $54.13 — both far below the current price.

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