Wolfe Research Declares AMD (AMD) the Ultimate AI CPU Winner Over Intel, Nvidia, and Arm

Key Takeaways

• Agentic AI workloads projected to fuel approximately 30% expansion in CPU market revenues by 2028, according to Wolfe Research
• Advanced Micro Devices identified as strongest performer relative to current market position, with server CPU sales projected at $44 billion by 2028
• ARM architecture anticipated to dominate 50–75% of agentic AI CPU segment
• Intel projected to experience continued market share erosion in both orchestration and agentic segments despite absolute revenue gains
• Nvidia forecast to deliver over 4 million CPU units in current year, though segment remains minor compared to core accelerator business

In a comprehensive market analysis, Wolfe Research has outlined how the emergence of agentic artificial intelligence will catalyze substantial CPU market expansion—approximately 30% growth through the end of 2028. According to the firm’s assessment, next-generation AI systems require significantly enhanced CPU capacity working in tandem with GPUs to orchestrate operations, allocate memory resources, and execute sophisticated computational tasks.

Wolfe Research additionally highlighted that constrained production capacity at TSMC may become the determining factor in competitive positioning, potentially overshadowing pure performance advantages in the coming years.

AMD Emerges as Primary Beneficiary in Wolfe’s Assessment

According to Wolfe Research’s analysis, Advanced Micro Devices represents the most compelling opportunity when evaluated against current market capitalization and equity valuation metrics. The investment firm anticipates server CPU revenues for AMD will surge to $44 billion by calendar 2028, representing substantial growth from the projected $17 billion in 2026.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD

Wolfe’s modeling suggests the AI-centric CPU expansion could contribute approximately $7 in additional earnings per share relative to 2025 baseline figures. This would elevate AMD’s overall profitability to a range of $25 to $30 per share by the conclusion of 2028.

The research emphasizes ARM-based processor architectures as central to this trajectory. Wolfe anticipates ARM designs will command between 50% and 75% of the agentic artificial intelligence CPU segment, attributing this to superior energy efficiency metrics and enhanced parallel processing capabilities versus conventional x86 architectures.

Intel Expands in Absolute Terms While Market Position Weakens

Intel is projected to achieve server CPU revenue reaching $41.5 billion by 2028, climbing from $22.6 billion in 2026. Wolfe’s calculations indicate this expansion could deliver roughly $1 in additional earnings per share compared to 2025 performance.

Nevertheless, the analysis simultaneously projects ongoing market share deterioration for Intel. The migration of Google’s infrastructure to its proprietary Axion processors for orchestration functions represents a direct competitive challenge to Intel’s market positioning.

Intel confronts headwinds across both conventional server and emerging agentic CPU categories, even as total addressable market opportunity expands significantly.

Nvidia and Arm Positioned for Secondary Gains

Wolfe’s forecast indicates Nvidia will distribute in excess of 4 million CPU units during the current calendar year. Approximately 1.3 million units will consist of Vera agentic processors, with the majority of shipments concentrated in the final quarter. Revenue from agentic CPU products is projected to accelerate from $6.6 billion in 2026 to $24.6 billion by 2028.

Despite this substantial growth trajectory, Wolfe emphasizes that CPU revenues will continue representing a relatively minor component of Nvidia’s business mix when compared to its dominant AI accelerator division. The incremental earnings per share contribution from CPU operations is estimated at merely $0.50 above 2025 levels.

Arm Holdings stands to capture value through both intellectual property licensing fees and direct chip sales. Wolfe’s financial model projects $1.5 billion in royalty-based revenue for 2027, expanding to $2.5 billion in 2028. The firm additionally forecasts $2 billion in ARM silicon sales during 2028, driving total earnings power to approximately $4.50 per share by that timeframe. Wolfe cautions that current ARM equity valuations appear elevated relative to fundamentals.

The comprehensive CPU market expansion is also anticipated to generate roughly 20% growth in semiconductor wafer demand over a two-year horizon, though GPU and XPU products remain the predominant catalysts for leading-edge manufacturing capacity utilization.

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