Hewlett Packard (HPE) Stock: What to Expect from Q2 Earnings Tuesday

TLDR

• HPE stock jumped 12.64% to $43.04, up ~80% year-to-date, ahead of its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report due after market close Tuesday
• Wall Street expects Q2 EPS of $0.54, up from $0.38 a year ago, with revenue guidance of $9.6B–$10.0B
• Networking revenue surged 152% last quarter (boosted by the Juniper deal), now making up over half of HPE’s operating profit
• HPE entered Q2 with a record $5.0 billion AI Systems backlog; supply constraints remain the main risk
• Analyst consensus is Moderate Buy, but the average price target of $33 sits well below the current stock price — implying ~23% downside

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is heading into its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report on a strong run. The stock hit $43.04 on Friday, up 12.64% on the day, and climbed further to $44.31 in after-hours trading.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, HPE

That puts HPE up roughly 80% year-to-date — one of the stronger runs in the enterprise tech space this year.

The report lands after market close Tuesday. Wall Street is expecting Q2 EPS of $0.54, compared to $0.38 in the same quarter last year. Revenue guidance from management sits at $9.6 billion to $10.0 billion.

That EPS estimate is near the top of HPE’s own guidance range of $0.51 to $0.55 — leaving little room for error.

Q1 set a high bar

Last quarter gave investors a lot to work with. HPE posted revenue of $9.3 billion, up 18% year-over-year, alongside record non-GAAP EPS of $0.65. Free cash flow came in at $708 million.

The Networking segment was the standout. Revenue there rose 152% on a reported basis, helped by the Juniper Networks integration. Networking now represents about 30% of HPE’s total revenue and more than half of its operating profit.

That’s a meaningful shift in HPE’s revenue mix — and one that’s driven a lot of the investor enthusiasm this year.

AI backlog and supply risks

HPE entered Q2 with a record $5.0 billion AI Systems backlog. It booked $1.2 billion in AI Systems orders during Q1 alone.

Investors will be watching how much of that backlog is converting into actual revenue. Management has set a target of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion in cumulative networks-for-AI orders by the end of fiscal 2026.

On the risk side, HPE has flagged memory and NAND shortages as ongoing pressure points. These constraints can limit shipments and push costs higher. The company has already trimmed its Cloud & AI revenue outlook to mid- to high-single-digit growth, with segment operating margins expected around 7% to 9%.

Analyst targets sit well below current price

HPE carries a Moderate Buy consensus from 11 analysts — eight Buys, three Holds, zero Sells. But the average price target is $33, which implies roughly 23% downside from where the stock is trading now.

Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley both hold Hold ratings, with targets of $26 and $25–$33 respectively. Evercore ISI, J.P. Morgan, and Citi are more upbeat with Buy ratings, though even their targets are close to or below the current price.

That sets up an interesting dynamic for Tuesday’s report. A simple beat may not be enough to push the stock higher from here — management will likely need to raise its outlook for the rest of the year to keep momentum going.

The stock closed Friday at $43.04, up 12.64% on the session, with after-hours trading putting it at $44.31.

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