Bitcoin Price Trades Near $65K Despite Bitwise’s $224K

Key Insights

• Bitwise Europe estimated Bitcoin’s theoretical fair value at $224,000 using a sovereign-debt risk model.
• The framework treats Bitcoin as a hedge against default risks in major government bond markets.
• Bitcoin price remains near $65,000 as ETF outflows and weaker demand continue weighing on sentiment.

Bitcoin price remained under pressure near $65,000 even as Bitwise Europe argued that the asset’s theoretical value could exceed $224,000 under a sovereign-debt risk framework.

The estimate appeared in the firm’s June 2026 macro report, which examined Bitcoin’s potential role in an environment of rising government debt and growing concerns about sovereign bond markets.

Bitwise Argues Bitcoin is Undervalued Relative to Global Debt

According to the report, this theoretical value is based on the continued rise in sovereign debts relative to the GDP. It noted that the risk of default is increasing as sovereign bond yields keep rising.

The analysts observed that the sovereign debt problem looks set to worsen this year. Companies and countries are expected to borrow $29 trillion from the bond market in 2026, a 17% increase from last year.

Interestingly, 78% of borrowing by OECD countries will go towards refinancing existing debts, further highlighting the gravity of the situation. The current condition of the sovereign bonds has led the IMF to suggest “elevated probability for a bond market capitulation.”

In such an environment, Bitwise analysts believe bitcoin and other digital assets could benefit. “We think that a capitulation in the sovereign bond market may provide a significant upside catalyst for bitcoin and cryptoassets, especially if major central banks are forced to intervene,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, the report noted that Bitcoin has historically outperformed gold as a hedge for the US Sovereign bonds. It noted that, since the cryptocurrency lacks a central issuer, it can be considered a CDS on sovereign bonds.

Bitcoin Slips Further to $65,000

While the Bitwise model might suggest a theoretical value of over $200,000, Bitcoin’s actual price is under intense pressure. It has dropped to around $65,000, marking a 13% drop in a week.

It is now at its lowest price since March 2026, and it could fall further if selling pressure persists. The massive decline follows Strategy selling a small portion of its Bitcoin as part of portfolio optimization.

However, analysts believe the major issue for Bitcoin is a lack of demand. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen over 10 days of consecutive outflows.

The Bitwise report also highlighted the limited demand as a headwind for Bitcoin. It added that the increasing odds that new  Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh will not reduce rates are also a challenge.

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