AstraZeneca (AZN) Stock: Bernstein Sees 37% Upside as Non-Oncology Gets Ignored

TLDR

• Bernstein reiterates “outperform” on AZN with a £186 price target, implying ~37% upside from the £135.54 close
• Non-oncology is expected to drive ~65% of AstraZeneca’s projected 6% CAGR between 2026–2031, but investors are underpricing it
• Bernstein’s 2030 revenue forecast of $89.06B sits 11% above AstraZeneca’s own $80B guidance and 8% above Bloomberg consensus
• Key drug Wainua has a Bernstein 2035 estimate of $4.80B — 170% above Bloomberg consensus of $1.80B
• AZN rose 3.1% on June 4, bringing the price to $181.80; insiders sold $2.2M in the past three months with no buying

AstraZeneca (AZN) stock rose 3.1% on June 4, 2026, closing at $181.80. The stock trades in a 52-week range of $134.90 to $212.71.

AstraZeneca PLC, AZN

Bernstein put out a note on Friday reiterating its “outperform” rating on AstraZeneca. The broker kept its price target at £186, against a closing price of £135.54 — that’s roughly 37% implied upside.

The core argument is simple: AstraZeneca’s non-oncology division isn’t getting the attention it deserves from investors.

Bernstein says this segment is expected to drive around 65% of the company’s projected 6% compound annual sales growth from 2026 to 2031. Yet analysts say it still doesn’t get “its fair share in the investment debate.”

The broker’s 2030 total revenue estimate sits at $89.06 billion. That’s 11% above AstraZeneca’s own risk-adjusted guidance of $80 billion and 8% above Bloomberg consensus of $82 billion. All projected top-line upside versus consensus between 2027 and 2035 is expected to come from non-oncology.

Wainua Stands Out

The biggest gap sits in Wainua, AstraZeneca’s drug for transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR). Bernstein’s risk-adjusted 2035 estimate is $4.80 billion — 170% above Bloomberg consensus of $1.80 billion. AstraZeneca itself has guided to non-risk-adjusted peak sales of over $5 billion.

Phase 3 CARDIO-TTransform data is expected in the second half of 2026. AstraZeneca’s head of non-oncology R&D, Dr. Sharon Barr, noted that U.S. diagnosis rates for ATTR cardiomyopathy are still at just 30% — pointing to a large untapped patient pool.

Another drug getting attention is AZD0780, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor for high cholesterol. AstraZeneca has guided to peak sales of over $5 billion; Bloomberg consensus sits at $2.40 billion. Bernstein estimates $3.10 billion by 2035.

Dr. Barr also flagged that AZD0780 won’t carry fasting requirements — a potential edge over Merck’s competing candidate enlicitide decanoate.

COPD Drug Adds to the Case

Tozorakimab, AstraZeneca’s COPD drug, posted positive headline phase 3 data on March 27, 2026. AstraZeneca has guided peak sales of $3 billion to $5 billion against Bloomberg consensus of $2 billion.

In Bernstein’s bull case, it sees 179% upside to 2035 adjusted EBITA. Its bear case implies 101% downside.

The approved portfolio makes up 55% of the upside scenario. Ultomiris leads that group, with Bernstein’s 2035 estimate of $9.60 billion well above consensus of $6.50 billion.

On valuation, GuruFocus gives AZN a GF Score of 83/100. The current P/E of 27.3x sits below the five-year median of 34.2x. GF Value pegs the stock at $178.11 — slightly below the $181.80 price, flagging a modest 2.1% overvaluation.

One potential concern: insiders sold $2.2 million worth of stock over the last three months, with no buying activity reported.

Phase 3 CARDIO-TTransform data for Wainua remains the next key catalyst, expected in the second half of 2026.

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