The week from September 29 to October 5, 2025 promises to be full of key events for the crypto market. From macroeconomic data in the United States and Europe, to regulatory decisions that could define the future of stablecoins, to technical updates and token unlocks in the blockchain ecosystem: each factor can impact the sentiment of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the DeFi sector.
To this are added the flows of Bitcoin ETFs, increasingly crucial for institutional orientation. A week that shapes up as a real litmus test to assess the sector’s resilience after months of uncertainty and volatility.
Macro & Regulation: data and decisions to follow
Industry operators are closely watching the macroeconomic calendar:
- October 2: the US Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be released, a gauge of American economic activity and a potential signal for the next moves by the Federal Reserve.
- October 3: Europe will release the preliminary reading of inflation (CPI), crucial for assessing the future decisions of the ECB on rates.
- October 4: eyes on China with the release of Caixin PMI data, capable of influencing the perception of Asian demand for risky assets, including crypto and digital commodities.
On the regulatory front, in the United States the debate continues on the oversight of stablecoin and the role of banks in the custody of digital assets. In Europe, however, the focus is on the implementation of the MiCA regulation, which will gradually come into effect and determine the legal framework for exchanges and crypto service providers.
Markets & ETF: volatility incoming?
The spotlight remains on spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have shown mixed flows in recent weeks. According to the data cited in the report, the net balance remains positive, but with less intensity compared to the summer peaks: a sign of institutional caution.
- September 30: options and futures on Bitcoin and Ethereum expire, an event that historically increases volatility and can trigger sharp price movements.
- The spreads between spot and derivative contracts indicate a more defensive market: interest in put options is growing, used as a hedge against sudden downturns.
Ethereum, awaiting new decisions on ETH futures ETFs, remains under observation. However, the main narrative continues to revolve around Bitcoin, perceived as a digital alternative to gold in a complex macro scenario.
On-chain & Ecosystem: updates and technical risks
The on-chain dimension offers various points of analysis for the week:
- Token unlock: on October 2nd, over 11 million dollars in Aptos (APT) will be released, while on October 3rd it will be dYdX (DYDX)‘s turn, with over 9 million tokens in additional circulation. These events can exert bearish pressure, especially if accompanied by profit-taking.
- Network upgrade: Polygon continues to push for the adoption of zkEVM technology, with new steps in the roadmap that strengthen its position among the leading layer-2.
- DeFi: the Total Value Locked (TVL) is slightly recovering, supported by growth on Ethereum and second-layer chains like Arbitrum and Optimism.
- Security: after the exploits suffered by various yield farming protocols, the pressure for more rigorous audits is increasing. Trust in DeFi remains tied to the ability to strengthen the security of smart contracts.
On the Bitcoin side, data shows accumulation by long-term holders, indicating that the market’s more solid base continues to see value in the medium to long term.
What Could Change Market Sentiment
The report identifies three main catalysts that could reverse market sentiment in the short term:
- US and Europe Macro Data
An upside surprise in inflation or a significant drop in PMIs could heighten recession fears and drive investors to seek alternative safe havens, including Bitcoin. - Bitcoin ETF Flows
Significant inflows into spot products would represent a strong signal of institutional confidence. Conversely, prolonged outflows could undermine price support. - Token unlock & DeFi
The unlocking of large quantities of tokens risks exerting pressure on prices, but an improvement in TVL and security in DeFi protocols would provide an opportunity to consolidate the positive narrative about the ecosystem.
Conclusion: outlook for the crypto market
The week of September 29 – October 5 presents the crypto market with a mix of risks and opportunities. The general bias remains cautious, with investors awaiting confirmations from macro data and ETF inflows.
If Bitcoin manages to remain stable above the main technical supports and if Bitcoin ETFs register new inflows, the market could strengthen the narrative of a digital safe-haven asset. Ethereum and the DeFi sector, on the other hand, will need to demonstrate resilience in the face of token unlocks and security threats.
In summary, we are facing a week that could redefine global sentiment: between expected volatility and new opportunities, the crypto market is once again called upon to demonstrate its resilience.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/09/29/crypto-news-weekly-what-awaits-us-this-week-september-29-october-5/
