SpaceX IPO Is Four Times Oversubscribed — Is It Draining Crypto and Tech Markets?

TLDR

• SpaceX’s IPO is nearly four times oversubscribed, attracting over $250 billion in demand against a $75 billion target
• The company is valued at $1.8 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever
• Crypto markets lost more than $180 billion in the past week, with analysts pointing to a “pre-mega-IPO liquidity squeeze”
• Crypto exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bybit launched pre-IPO perpetual futures for SpaceX
• Binance’s SpaceX pre-IPO perps generated $2.1 billion in trading volume across 130+ countries in just 18 days

SpaceX’s long-awaited IPO is shaking up financial markets. The company is seeking to raise $75 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation, and investor demand has far exceeded expectations.

Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that demand has reached over $250 billion. That puts the oversubscription rate at roughly three and a half to four times the planned offering size.

Elon Musk briefly joined Zoom calls with potential investors during the roadshow. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen met around 300 institutional investors at a Morgan Stanley lunch in New York on Tuesday.

IPO pricing is expected Thursday afternoon. Final allocations will only be confirmed at that point, and some large institutional investors typically submit orders late in the process.

Crypto and Tech Stocks Feel the Pressure

Tech stocks and crypto have both pulled back sharply in the lead-up to the IPO. The Nasdaq posted its steepest single-day decline in more than a year last Friday. Bitcoin is down 2.8% on Tuesday and sits 37% below its January high.

Analysts are pointing to a “pre-mega-IPO liquidity squeeze” as one explanation. The idea is that investors are selling risk assets to free up cash to participate in the SpaceX offering.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, described the sell-off as a direct “IPO tax” from the SpaceX deal. He said the timing lines up with pricing and trading scheduled for Thursday and Friday.

He added that crypto is being hit hardest because it is the most retail-driven and most closely tied to growth and tech sentiment. He called the current pullback a “temporary rotation,” not the start of a broader bear market.

Crypto markets have shed more than $180 billion over the past week.

Crypto Exchanges Move Fast on Pre-IPO Products

Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bybit all launched pre-IPO perpetual futures for SpaceX this month. These products let traders gain exposure to SpaceX before it officially begins trading.

Binance’s head of spot and derivatives, Shunyet Jan, said the early traction reflects growing user interest in regulated-style exposure to high-profile private companies. Since launching, the products have generated $2.1 billion in cumulative trading volume in 18 days, with users across more than 130 countries participating.

Decentralized exchange Hyperliquid has seen $70 million in trading volume in the past 24 hours alone. Its synthetic SpaceX pre-IPO perps are currently priced at $157, down from $210 at launch. Open interest on Hyperliquid exceeds $115 million, with the platform implying a SpaceX valuation of around $1.97 trillion.

SpaceX’s roadshow materials highlight Starlink, its satellite internet unit, as a key growth driver. The company also pointed to a claimed $23 trillion market opportunity tied to AI, including plans to build data centers in space.

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