Bitcoin Near Realized Price as ETF Demand Turns Negative

TLDR

• CryptoQuant identifies $53,600 as Bitcoin’s realized price and a potential bottom zone.
• Bitcoin traded near $62,150 after falling to around $59,000 last week.
• Total Bitcoin demand dropped by 652,000 BTC, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022.
• One-year apparent demand growth turned negative and fell below its moving average.
• Thirty-day ETF demand growth declined to negative 74,000 BTC since January 2024 launch.

Bitcoin could approach $53,600 as a potential floor while demand metrics remain weak, CryptoQuant reported on Wednesday. The firm said this level matches the current realized price, which tracks the aggregate onchain cost basis. However, research head Julio Moreno stated that demand conditions remain “deeply unfavorable” and no durable recovery has formed.

Bitcoin Realized Price Signals Possible Bottom Zone

CryptoQuant identified $53,600 as Bitcoin’s realized price and a possible bottom area. Moreno said Bitcoin historically bottoms near or slightly below this metric in bear cycles. He told The Block, “Historically, it’s a level that would confirm a bottom.”

However, Moreno added that price may not necessarily hit that level. He said demand weakness keeps that possibility open for now. Bitcoin fell to about $59,000 last week, placing it 9% above $53,600.

After the drop, Bitcoin rebounded and traded near $62,150. In November 2022, Bitcoin briefly fell below its realized price during the FTX selloff. It later recovered, reinforcing that level as a key valuation reference.

Demand Metrics Show Persistent Weakness

CryptoQuant reported a 652,000 Bitcoin contraction in total demand last week. The firm combines speculative futures activity and apparent spot demand in that measure. Moreno wrote that both segments weakened as Bitcoin dropped below $60,000.

Long liquidations increased and spot selling accelerated during that period. Meanwhile, one-year apparent demand growth turned negative and declined below its moving average. Moreno said this marked the fastest pace of decline since February 2024.

He wrote that fewer buyers exist today compared with a year ago. He added that this trend “removes the demand foundation required to sustain any price recovery.” The report also pointed to slowing institutional demand through spot exchange-traded funds.

Thirty-day ETF demand growth fell to negative 74,000 Bitcoin. CryptoQuant said this marked the weakest reading since U.S. spot ETFs launched in January 2024. Moreno wrote that ETFs now contribute to net supply expansion as investors reduce exposure.

At the same time, realized losses have not reached capitulation levels. Bitcoin holders realized 187,000 Bitcoin in losses over the past 30 days. That compares with 400,000 Bitcoin during the February 2026 drop below $60,000.

During the November 2022 market bottom, realized losses reached 1.2 million Bitcoin. Moreno said, “The absence of a capitulation-level spike in realized losses indicates that a large cohort of holders is still above water at $59,000.” He added that heavy selling and seller exhaustion usually precede major bottoms.

Moreno concluded that the current price should serve as a valuation floor candidate. He said a bull market requires a constructive demand recovery. He stated that such a recovery does not yet appear in the data.

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