Bitcoin News Today: Over Half of All Bitcoin Is Now Underwater And History Says That’s a Buy Signal

Bitcoin News Today: More than half of all Bitcoin in circulation, approximately 10.5 million BTC, is now held at an unrealized loss, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. That threshold was breached on June 5, 2026, the same session the BTC price touched a 2026 intraday low of $59,100, extending a 30-day decline of 26.8% and a seven-day drawdown of 19.3%.

The breach is not just Bitcoin News Today, it’s a signal. Bitcoin also fell below its 200-week moving average for the first time since June 2022, a long-term structural support level that had held through every correction of the post-2022 recovery. The last time both conditions coincided, the market was approaching a generational cycle bottom.

The open question the market must now resolve is whether the historical signal still carries its old weight in a market structurally altered by institutional ETF products, AI capital rotation, and a Federal Reserve that has declined to cut rates, or whether the pattern breaks down precisely when it is needed most.

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Bitcoin News Today: Supply in Loss, What the 52% Reading Actually Reveals About Holder Behavior

Context significantly enhances the raw figure. When Glassnode’s supply-in-loss metric crosses 50%, it means the majority of all coins in circulation are held by addresses whose acquisition price exceeds the current market price; every one of those holders is sitting on an unrealized loss and faces a binary choice: absorb the pain or crystallize it by selling.

That dynamic matters for sell-side pressure in a specific way. Deeply underwater holders tend to hold rather than sell, because selling locks in a loss that patience might eventually reverse. The metric therefore often marks a point of maximum fear but minimum incremental selling, the weak hands have already been flushed, and the remaining holders are either long-term conviction buyers or addresses too far underwater to act rationally on price.

The NUPL, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, has shifted into what Glassnode classifies as the ‘Hope–Fear’ zone, below zero but not yet into full capitulation territory. The realized price, representing the average on-chain cost basis across all circulating coins, sits near $54,000. That figure is the next major structural anchor below current price levels and the level at which the average Bitcoin holder moves from loss into profit on any recovery.

Transaction volume data from CryptoQuant contributor Darkfrost adds a complementary signal: average monthly Bitcoin transaction count has reached approximately 640,000 on a 30-day moving average basis, approaching an all-time high. On X, Darkfrost described the activity as “a capitulation episode and a significant change of hands”, coins moving from distressed sellers to new buyers willing to absorb at current prices.

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Why Supply in Loss Above 50% Has Marked Every Major Bitcoin Bottom, And What That Means Now

The historical record on this signal is consistent enough to warrant serious attention. The >50% supply-in-loss condition appeared at the 2015 bear market bottom, the late-2018 into early-2019 capitulation when Bitcoin fell to $3,100, the March 2020 COVID crash low of $3,800, and the June 2022 cycle bottom near $17,600. In each instance, the condition either coincided with the absolute low or appeared within weeks of it.

The June 2022 analog is particularly relevant because it is the last time Bitcoin broke below the 200-week moving average, the same breach that just occurred. That episode marked the terminal phase of the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin bottomed at $15,476 in November 2022 and began a sustained recovery that eventually carried the BTC price to a cycle high above $109,000.

On-chain analyst @zerobasezk, widely followed in the Glassnode community, described the current supply-in-loss reading as “a level that has historically marked major bear-market bottoms in every cycle since 2011.” The structural argument is straightforward: when more than half of all coins are underwater, the marginal seller has largely exhausted. The remaining supply is held by long-term holders whose cost basis is far lower, and they are not selling at $59,100.

The critical caveat is timing. CryptoRank analysis of prior cycles shows the >50% supply-in-loss condition has persisted anywhere from one month to over a year before price recovered. The signal identifies the zone, not the date.

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