SpaceX IPO: Winners and Losers Among Space Stocks, Telecoms, and AI Players

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX begins trading Friday with shares priced at $135, potentially raising $75 billion in what may become the biggest IPO ever recorded
• Competitors like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab may experience valuation compression as SpaceX’s 35x sales multiple contrasts sharply with their 60-80x ratios
• Wireless carriers including Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile have declined recently on competitive threats, though a weak IPO could trigger reversals
• SpaceX identifies AI as its largest opportunity, targeting a $22.7 trillion addressable market despite no profitability roadmap for its xAI division
• While Nasdaq updated listing requirements to permit faster index inclusion, S&P Dow Jones maintains its traditional 12-month eligibility window

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is scheduled to make its public market debut this Friday, pricing 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece. The offering is positioned to generate approximately $75 billion, potentially setting a record as the largest initial public offering in market history.

According to CEO Elon Musk in a conversation with JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon on X, the capital raise will fund the deployment of 100,000 advanced Starlink satellites alongside constructing orbital AI infrastructure. The transaction could push Musk, currently the planet’s wealthiest individual, toward becoming the first verified trillionaire.

Implications for Publicly-Traded Space Companies

SpaceX enters the public markets valued at approximately 35 times projected revenue. This benchmark creates complications for existing space sector competitors.

AST SpaceMobile currently commands a valuation multiple near 80 times forward revenue projections. Rocket Lab operates at close to 60 times sales. Both securities have experienced substantial appreciation over the trailing twelve months — advancing roughly 150% and 290% respectively.

With SpaceX establishing a concrete valuation reference point, these elevated multiples face potential contraction. Market observers characterize this phenomenon as “derating” — where valuation metrics compress to align with more established comparable entities.

Intuitive Machines and Redwire confront comparable vulnerabilities. These four companies all maintain short interest positions around 20%, approximately three to four times the Russell 1000 average. This dynamic elevates the possibility of a short squeeze scenario should SpaceX’s market debut catalyze upward momentum in space sector equities.

Wireless Carriers and Artificial Intelligence Stocks Face Uncertainty

SpaceX extends far beyond launch services. The company’s Starlink satellite internet platform presents direct competition to established wireless telecommunications providers.

Equity prices for Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile have experienced downward pressure preceding the offering amid competitive displacement concerns. Should the IPO fall short of expectations, these telecommunications stocks could experience relief rallies.

SpaceX’s regulatory filings identify artificial intelligence as its most substantial market opportunity, quantifying the addressable market at $22.7 trillion. The company’s xAI subsidiary, which completed its merger with SpaceX earlier this calendar year, competes against Anthropic, OpenAI, and Microsoft. Filing documents reveal no defined strategy for achieving profitability within this business segment.

A disappointing market debut could generate contagion effects throughout AI-exposed equities more generally. SpaceX represents the inaugural unprofitable AI enterprise to pursue public markets. OpenAI and Anthropic are anticipated to execute similar offerings before year-end.

Market Index Requirements and Governance Structure

Nasdaq modified its eligibility criteria to enable companies to qualify for Nasdaq 100 inclusion following merely 15 trading sessions, potentially accelerating SpaceX’s index entry. Conversely, S&P Dow Jones maintains its established 12-month seasoning requirement without modification.

Musk will retain majority ownership of Class B shares, securing absolute authority over corporate governance decisions. SpaceX’s own disclosure documents acknowledge that losing Musk’s leadership would present severe recovery challenges.

Before the public offering, SpaceX shares traded near $163 on cryptocurrency platform Hyperliquid — suggesting approximately 20% appreciation potential from the IPO pricing level.

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