SpaceX (SPCX) Stock: Is $190 Realistic? Wall Street Weighs In Before IPO

TLDR

• New Street Research set a $165 price target for SpaceX, ~22% above the $135 IPO price
• Oppenheimer initiated with a Buy (Outperform) rating and a $190 price target
• Analysts project 2030 sales of $195 billion, with $65 billion in operating profit
• SpaceX trades at ~38x estimated 2030 operating profit vs. Alphabet’s 13x
• Retail demand for the IPO could top $70 billion; at least 20% of shares may go to retail investors

SpaceX is set to debut on the public markets Friday, June 12, with an expected IPO price of $135 — and Wall Street is already staking out positions.

New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu was among the first out of the gate, launching coverage with a $165 price target. That’s roughly 22% above the IPO price and implies an equity value of around $2.3 trillion. Ferragu has no formal rating, citing the uncertainty of where the stock will actually open, but his bull case pushes shares to $330 if things go well.

Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan went further, slapping an Outperform rating on the stock with a $190 target. KGI also issued a Buy rating, though the full report hasn’t been widely circulated.

Ferragu projects 2030 revenue of $195 billion with operating profit of $65 billion. Embedded in that valuation: $650 billion for Starlink and $575 billion for AI-related operations.

The combined average of Ferragu’s and Horan’s price targets puts SpaceX at approximately 38 times estimated 2030 operating profit. For context, Alphabet currently trades at around 13 times that same metric.

What’s Driving the Premium

His thesis centers on the company’s ability to build and operate space-based data centers, which Elon Musk has argued could be cheaper to run than ground-based alternatives in the near future.

That pitch has found an audience. Reports suggest retail demand for the IPO could exceed $70 billion. At least 20% of the offering is expected to be allocated to retail investors — a larger-than-typical slice for a deal of this size. International investors, meanwhile, may receive less than 10% of the allocation.

Platforms including Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab are expected to give individual investors access to the offering.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has called on the SEC to delay the listing, adding a political wrinkle to what is otherwise a frenzy of investor enthusiasm.

Pre-Market Signals

SpaceX isn’t trading yet, but perpetual futures on crypto platform Hyperliquid were pricing shares around $164 early Thursday — nearly in line with Ferragu’s target.

It’s worth noting that New Street, Oppenheimer, and KGI are not underwriters on the deal. Brokers that are part of an IPO are typically required to wait weeks before publishing research. These firms have no such restriction.

Oppenheimer also raised its outlook on Tesla stock in the same note, pointing to stronger EV demand driven by elevated oil prices.

If SpaceX closes near the $164 futures level on Friday, analysts will likely need to revise their targets upward almost immediately.

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