NS DAP’s reliance on incumbents a safe bet, say analysts

PETALING JAYA: Negeri Sembilan DAP’s decision to retain most of its incumbents for the coming state election is the safest strategy to defend its seats, analysts say.

Syaza Shukri said voters’ familiarity with DAP’s incumbent assemblymen would give the party an advantage in tight contests, while Chin Yee Mun said DAP needed to rely on its elected representatives’ clout given the current political climate.

Syaza told FMT that incumbents generally hold an advantage because voters can already judge their performance.

“For an established party like DAP, prioritising incumbents might work better because people know them, are familiar with them, and can assess their track record,” the International Islamic University Malaysia analyst said.

On Wednesday, DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook announced that the party will retain a majority of its incumbents while introducing several new candidates for the upcoming polls.

Loke said the list of candidates was in its final stages and would be announced within the next few days. He said an early announcement would give the candidates time to prepare and familiarise themselves with their constituencies.

DAP has retained all 11 state seats it has contested in Negeri Sembilan in every election since 2013. In the 2023 state election, it helped Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional secure 31 of the state’s 36 seats to form the state government.

The party is expected to defend its 11 seats at the coming state election.

Strong enough to test the waters

Syaza suggested that DAP’s strong record in the state should allow it to test the waters with fresh faces, adding that voters would probably not see this as a weakness.

However, new faces should be introduced in safer seats as part of a gradual transition.

“The party can consider putting new faces in winnable seats, and more experienced candidates in marginal seats. This could be a winning formula,” she said.

She said relying too heavily on the same faces could give the impression that the party is not renewing itself, though she believes this is unlikely to translate into a significant loss of votes.

“DAP, especially in Negeri Sembilan where it is strong, is seen as a dinosaur party with no new faces. The danger is more in perception but, in terms of voting, I think it wouldn’t affect much.

“More new candidates would signal confidence in succession and thus the long-term viability of DAP in Negeri Sembilan,” she said.

Too risky for changes

Chin, from Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, noted that while DAP must eventually establish a succession plan and create space for younger leaders to rise, the upcoming election is not the right moment for sweeping changes.

He said voters appear less convinced by the party based on social media responses and its poor performance in the Sabah state election last November, making familiar candidates the safer option.

“Under such circumstances, DAPs decision to retain most of the incumbents sounds logical. It is not a time for change. This Negeri Sembilan state election is not the state polls to do so, it’s too risky,” he said.