Bitcoin Reclaims $65,000 as US-Iran Peace Deal Boosts Risk Appetite

Bitcoin reclaimed the $65,000 level after Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly confirmed a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. He also revealed the signing date and location, giving risk assets a broad lift across markets.

The crypto market is now heading into one of its busiest weeks in recent memory. Traders are watching closely for signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, incoming U.S. labor market data, and any policy direction from the Bank of Japan.

Despite the bounce, several analysts are pointing to data that suggests the real low may not be confirmed yet.

A blend of on-chain signals, a fractal from gold in 1972, and a 2022 cycle comparison are keeping the near-term outlook cautious.

What Is the Bitcoin Price Today?

BTC is trading near $65,848 on Binance at the time of writing. The 14-day RSI sits at 42.32, still below the neutral 50 level.

All four major EMAs are stacked above the current price. The 20 EMA is at $66,658, the 50 EMA at $70,668, the 100 EMA at $73,294, and the 200 EMA at $78,683. That gap between price and EMAs shows the downtrend is still in control.

A small falling wedge is forming on the daily chart near current price levels. These setups sometimes lead to short-term relief bounces.

Is Bitcoin Repeating the 2022 Bear Market Cycle?

Crypto analyst Crypto Rover shared a striking chart comparison on X this week. It showed BTC's 2026 price action mirroring the 2022 cycle almost exactly, move for move. The post gathered close to 99,000 impressions in under 12 hours.

If Bitcoin continues to track 2022, the market may be heading toward a pattern similar to the period just before the 2022 bear market bottomed out and gave way to recovery.

Will Bitcoin Price Drop to $47,000 Before the Next Rally?

Crypto Rover also flagged a comparison between Bitcoin and gold in 1972. Before gold entered one of its most powerful parabolic rallies in history, it first printed a lower high and then dropped to the very floor of its channel.

BTC has already formed that same lower high structure. If the fractal plays out the same way, $47,000 could be the final capitulation low before any major move higher. That is roughly 28% below where BTC is trading right now.

What Is the Bitcoin Realized P/L Margin Showing Right Now?

Analyst Ali Charts shared an on-chain signal worth watching this week. Since October 2025, BTC has consistently formed short-term price bottoms whenever the Traders' Realized P/L Margin dropped below -25%.

That reading is currently at -15%. The threshold has not been reached. With a 10-percentage-point gap still to go, there is room for further downside before this metric has historically triggered a bounce.

Price levels on the chart show BTC trading between $62,000 near the -25% zone and as high as $125,000 at prior cycle peaks.

Why Are Bitcoin Liquidations So High Today?

As per CoinGlass data, the past 24 hours saw $340.31 million in total crypto liquidations across 103,069 traders. Short positions took the bigger hit at $247.04 million, while long liquidations came in at $93.28 million.

Looking at a shorter 12-hour window, short liquidations alone hit $231.17 million. The single largest order was a $6.10 million short on Binance BTCUSDT.

A wave of short liquidations can temporarily push prices upward as traders close out losing bets.

How Does the Fed Rate Decision Affect Bitcoin Price?

Fed futures currently show a 96.6% probability of no rate change at the June 17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The fed funds target sits at 350 to 375 basis points. Only 3.4% of the market is pricing in a cut.

When the Fed stays on hold and there are no surprises, risk assets like BTC tend to stay range-bound. A neutral Fed outcome is unlikely to serve as a major price catalyst in either direction.

Risk Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry a high level of risk and are subject to extreme volatility. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.