Data analyst reveals 2028 presidential candidate is 'way underwater' in his home state

One of the potential Republican candidates for president in 2028 isn't doing very well back home in his own state — and he's suffering considerably with female voters.

Vice President JD Vance has been on shows defending President Donald Trump, but it comes at a time when he also has a new book out. CNN host John Berman said that a new political book generally means the author is running for president.

Speaking to CNN, data analyst Harry Enten cited some of the prediction markets showing that numbers have changed since the beginning of the year. On Jan. 1, the chances that Vance would win the 2028 GOP nomination was about 50 percent, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in with a distant 11 percent. Rubio is now up to 28 percent, and Vance has fallen significantly to a 33 percent chance of becoming president again in 2028.

"Look at this! The gap — it is closing. It is closing," Enten said with gusto.

He noted that the thing that changed is the Iran war.

Approval ratings among Republican voters are important if one of the two intends to run for president. Net approval in Vance has declined, according to the Quinnipiac University Poll. He was up 81 percent and now is closer to 69 percent approval. Rubio has increased, standing at 75 percent, and now is at 77 percent approval.

Back home, things are looking worse for Vance. According to Enten, one can tell a lot by how a candidate's home state feels about them. In Vance's Ohio, his net favorability was up 5 percent, but now it's down 7 percent. Among Independents, Vance is 27 percent underwater.

"JD Vance, not so popular in the Buckeye State," said Enten.

Berman called it "Problems at home." How about his net approval overall?

Overall, Enten said that Vance is still suffering with women. A few years ago, Vance attacked single cat ladies, it didn't do much to help him with the women's vote. With women, Vance is down 26 percent and down 2 percent with men.

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