Bitcoin Miners Face $50 Billion Funding Gap in AI Data Center Pivot, VanEck Says

TLDR

• VanEck says Bitcoin miners face a ~$50 billion near-term funding gap to build AI data centers
• Miners have only delivered about 25% of the AI capacity they’ve already leased to customers
• Long-term capital needs for the sector could reach $221 billion
• Companies with active AI contracts trade at 10x+ valuations vs 2–6x for pure Bitcoin miners
• VanEck flags HIVE, IREN, KEEL, and Bitdeer as having upside potential but high execution risk

Bitcoin miners that spent the past two years announcing AI deals are now facing a harder question: can they actually build what they promised?

A new report from asset manager VanEck puts a dollar figure on the challenge. The sector faces a combined near-term funding gap of roughly $50 billion, with long-term capital needs potentially reaching $221 billion if current development plans move forward.

VanEck analysts Griffin MacMaster and Matthew Sigel say the market is shifting its focus from contract signings to actual delivery.

Miners Have Only Delivered 25% of Leased Capacity

Across the sector, miners have delivered only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing capacity they have already leased to customers. VanEck expects that figure to fall further before improving, as large construction projects are not expected to ramp up until 2027 and 2028.

Companies that miss construction deadlines risk what VanEck calls “structural de-ratings” from investors. The analysts also point out that few of these companies have any prior experience building the kind of infrastructure AI customers require.

The pivot to AI began after the 2024 Bitcoin halving hit mining profitability hard. Many operators started repurposing their power infrastructure for AI workloads, betting that tech companies would pay more for electricity and data center capacity than Bitcoin mining could justify.

Core Scientific signed a multibillion-dollar hosting deal with AI startup CoreWeave. TeraWulf, Hut 8, Iren, and Cipher Mining have all announced plans to lease power and data center space to AI customers. Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and CleanSpark are running hybrid strategies that keep Bitcoin mining running while they explore AI.

Valuations Now Split Between Two Groups

VanEck’s report draws a clear line between companies that have secured and switched on AI infrastructure and those still pitching future plans.

Its key metric is “gross energized power” — how many megawatts a company has actually turned on, not just announced. Companies with physical leases in hand, including Cipher Mining, Hut 8, and TeraWulf, are trading at above 10 times gross energized power. Marathon Digital and CleanSpark, which remain more tied to Bitcoin mining, are trading at just 2–6 times that figure.

Funding options vary across the group. Companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets — Marathon Digital holds 35,303 BTC, CleanSpark holds 13,561 BTC, and Hut 8 holds 13,696 BTC — can sell holdings to help fund construction. Others without Bitcoin reserves face a narrower set of options, including stock dilution or new debt.

VanEck also expects tenant quality to matter more going forward. Miners serving large, investment-grade cloud companies could access cheaper financing and higher valuations than those working with smaller AI startups.

Despite Bitcoin falling roughly 24% since January, many miner stocks have moved sharply higher. Riot Platforms is up nearly 94% year-to-date. Cipher Mining has gained about 62%.

VanEck says the sector will eventually be valued less like miners and more like data center real estate investment trusts, once AI revenue matures. Some companies, it notes, could ultimately be sold or converted into REITs.

For now, the firm sees the greatest re-rating potential in HIVE, KEEL, IREN, and Bitdeer — though those same names carry the highest execution risk. TeraWulf, Cipher Mining, and Hut 8 offer a more conservative path, with anchor deals already secured.

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