SAN ANTONIO, TX – SEPTEMBER 29: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs speaks to the media at San Antonio Spurs Media Day at Victory Capital Performance Center on September 29, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images)
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In 2011, Derrick Rose became the youngest MVP in the history of the NBA. So far, no one has come close to putting themselves in the same conversation.
However, if one player is to do it, it’s Victor Wembanyama, and it has to be this season.
Both Rose and Wembanyama were drafted at the age of 19, with Rose turning 20 right before the start of his rookie season. Wembanyama didn’t turn 20 until January of his rookie campaign.
As such, the 7’5 center has just this year to beat the record. But it’ll take quite the effort.
Spurs will need to be borderline elite
To even have the Wembanyama MVP debate, it all starts with the success of the San Antonio Spurs as a whole. Anything below 50 wins would seem like an entire non-starter, and that’s a tall order given the squad still have questionable floor-spacing, and is loaded with young players, which rarely translates into winning.
That said, this is Year 3 of Wembanyama after all, and the presence of De’Aaron Fox is nothing to sneeze at. The former All-Star point guard is entering his prime, and he’ll have a full training camp with the Spurs before heading into the 2025-2026 campaign.
Then there’s the help. Devin Vassell remains a perfectly capable complementary scorer, and if rookie guard Dylan Harper pops, that’s another piece to the puzzle.
San Antonio is also in possession of last year’s Rookie Of the Year winner, Stephon Castle, who is already a quality defender, and someone who can put enormous pressure on the rim.
This isn’t to say the Spurs have the recipe for a 50-plus win season, but it is to say that scenario can’t be ruled out.
Wembanyama’s production
Of course, even if the Spurs win 50-plus games, Wembanyama will have to produce at a ridiculously high level to gain MVP consideration – both in terms of raw, and advanced, metrics.
His efficiency, defensive impact, rebounding, and overall shot variety will have to be in the upper echelon of the league. We already know his defensive capabilities are off the charts, and have been since he entered the NBA.
As such, his offensive performance is likely of bigger importance.
Can the Frenchman increase his perimeter shooting efficiency, while maintaining his at-rim conversion rate, we could be looking at a season in which the 21-year-old becomes one of the most potent offensive performers in the league.
It’s difficult to peg down an exact line for Wembanyama to clear. Nikola Jokić nearly averaged a 30-point triple-double last season, on elite efficiency no less, and he still didn’t win the award.
In that sense, Wembanyama would have to clear some outrageous expectations, and produce in a way that compares favorably to Jokić, and the actual winner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The odds are stacked against him, but he’s at least of such talent, it’s fair to mention it as a possibility if the stars align.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mortenjensen/2025/09/30/could-victor-wembanyama-win-the-2025-2026-nba-mvp-award/
