Ankalaev Vs. Pereira 2 Odds, Predictions, Picks

The UFC returns to pay-per-view action on Saturday, October 4, with UFC 320. The Las Vegas fight card features two title fights at the top of the marquee.

In the UFC 320 main event, current UFC light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev puts his title on the line against the man he took the belt from, Alex Pereira. Ankalaev defeated Pereira at UFC 313 in March, winning the UFC 205-pound crown via unanimous decision.

In the co-main event of UFC 320, the promotion’s bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, looks to become the eighth UFC champion to successfully defend their crown three times in a calendar year. Dvalishvili faces one-time UFC interim bantamweight title challenger Cory Sandhagen on Saturday night.

UFC 320 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The UFC 320 pay-per-view card streams on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 p.m. ET following prelims on ESPN+ and early prelims on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.

Below, we look at the picks, predictions and betting odds for the UFC 320 fight card main event rematch between Ankalaev and Pereira.

ForbesUFC 320: Ankalaev Vs. Pereira 2 Full Fight Card Betting OddsBy Trent Reinsmith

UFC 320 Main Event: Magomed Ankalaev Vs. Alex Pereira 2

Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1-1) has been a member of the UFC roster since 2018. Ankalaev lost his UFC debut when Paul Craig submitted him at 4:59 of the third round. Since then, Ankalaev has gone 13 fights without a loss.

Ankalaev secured a title fight in December 2022 when he faced former UFC champion Jan Blachowicz for the vacant light heavyweight crown. However, that contest ended in a split draw, and with neither man impressing the matchmakers in that matchup, the UFC opted not to give either man a second go at earning the belt.

Since then, Ankalaev is 2-0-0-1 with a no contest (illegal knee) against Johnny Walker, and most recently a decision win over Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 308.

When the UFC opted to give UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira a fight against Khalil Rountree at UFC 307 and bypass Ankalaev, he felt snubbed by the promotion, but also motivated.

“Now everybody knows I’m not fighting for the title and will fight Rakic in Abu Dhabi. Whoever (UFC matchmaker) Mick Maynard gives me I will smash their face so that they can no longer deny me if I do my job impressively. I feel sorry for whoever is gonna fight me from now going forward,” Ankalaev said at the time.

Not long after that, Ankalaev said that Pereira was running from him.

When the UFC booked the UFC 313 matchup between Ankalaev opened as the -200 favorite over Pereira, who was listed at +170. On fight night, Pereira had moved to a -120 betting favorite over the +100 Ankalaev.

The bout lasted 25 minutes. At the end of the contest, Ankalaev earned a unanimous decision win (49-46, 48-47, 48-47).

At the time, I wrote of Ankalaev, “Magomed Ankalaev and his team put together, implemented, and stuck with a strong game plan for Saturday’s fight against Alex Pereira. The strategy was to pressure Pereira, land effective strikes, keep the threat of a takedown in Pereira’s head, and exploit his lack of defensive movement. Ankalaev did just that, seeming to freeze Pereira over the final 20 minutes of the fight and avoid taking any serious damage.

“Fans might not have liked the performance, and the UFC is most likely not going to be overjoyed to see the light heavyweight title move from a knockout artist like Pereira to a fighter like Ankalaev, who is known more for decisions than stoppages, but that’s where they are following UFC 313.

“Ankalaev fought smartly and effectively, managing risk while doing enough damage to carry all three scorecards. Fans don’t have to like it, but there’s no controversy in the decision.”

Alex Pereira (12-3) began 2023 by losing his UFC middleweight title to Israel Adesanya by knockout. In July, Pereira followed that setback with a win over former UFC light heavyweight title holder, Jan Błachowicz, in his UFC debut at 205 pounds. He finished the year by knocking out ex-UFC light heavyweight kingpin Jiří Procházka at UFC 295 to claim the vacant UFC 205-pound title.

Pereira made his first defense of his crown in April when he knocked out(another) ex-UFC light heavyweight champ, Jamahal Hill, in the first round of their UFC 300 matchup. Pereira showed his power is on another level, when he finished Hill 3:14 into the first round of the main event of UFC 300.

In June, on very short notice, the UFC called on Pereira and Procházka to headline UFC 303 when the Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler fight fell off that card.

After the bout, which Pereira won via a knockout 13 seconds into the second stanza, I wrote:

“Pereira showed that his first win over Prochazka wasn’t a fluke. The UFC light heavyweight champ is a fearsome fighter who packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also an extremely focused competitor who doesn’t let anything bother him.

“Pereira effectively scored two knockouts on Saturday night, blasting former champion Jiri Prochazka to the mat at the bell to end the first round and then sending him right back down in the opening moments of the second round with a head kick.”

In August the UFC booked Pereira against Khalil Rountree Jr for the main event of UFC 307, which took place on October 5. Pereira outclassed Rountree, putting a beating on his opponent before scoring a fourth-round TKO win.

Pereira picked up his third UFC title defense of 2024 on Saturday night. Pereira let his opponent, Khalil Rountree Jr, tire himself out in the early going of the fight while simultaneously slowing him with powerful kicks to Rountree’s lead leg. Pereira picked up the pace in the third round, fighting very effectively behind his jab. That jab opened up several nasty cuts around Rountree’s eye and on the bridge of his nose. Those blows hurt Rountree, and once Pereira had Rountree fading, he picked him apart with precision and power, forcing the referee, Marc Goddard, to stop the fight in the fourth round. Goddard could have stopped this much sooner.

Pereira was in the running for fighter of the year for 2024.

Following his UFC 313 loss to Ankalaev, I wrote the following about the vanquished champion:

“Alex Pereira lost his UFC light heavyweight title on Saturday night, falling by unanimous decision to Magomed Ankalaev. Pereira did not seem to have a game plan to answer the pressure and forward motion of his opponent. With Ankalaev leading the dance in the final 20 minutes, Pereira seemed unable or unwilling to switch the momentum of the fight. It was a puzzling performance from the man who entered UFC 313 with an aura of invincibility about him.

“Pereira’s inability to fight off his back foot and inability to keep his head off the center line while defending strikes were especially noticeable on Saturday night.”

ForbesUFC 320 Main Event: Magomed Ankalaev Vs. Alex Pereira 2 Opening OddsBy Trent Reinsmith

UFC 320 Fight Card Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Ankalaev Vs. Pereira 2

Magomed Ankalaev:

Age: 33
Height: 6’ 3”
Reach: 75”
Stance: Orthodox

Alex Pereira:

Age: 38
Height: 6’ 4”
Reach: 79”
Stance: Orthodox

ForbesUFC 320 Co-Main Event: Dvalishvili Vs. Sandhagen Opening Betting OddsBy Trent Reinsmith

UFC 320 Fight Card Main Event Stats: Ankalaev Vs. Pereira 2

Magomed Ankalaev:

Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 3.66
Striking Accuracy: 52%
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 2.46
Striking Defense: 57%
Takedowns per 15 Minutes: 0.80
Takedown Accuracy: 22%
Takedown Defense: 87%

Alex Pereira:

Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 5.00
Striking Accuracy: 62%
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 3.50
Striking Defense: 53%
Takedowns per 15 Minutes: 0.11
Takedown Accuracy: 50%
Takedown Defense: 78%

ForbesUFC 321 Main Event: Tom Aspinall Vs. Ciryl Gane Opening Betting OddsBy Trent Reinsmith

UFC 320 Fight Card Main Event Predictions and Picks: Ankalaev Vs. Pereira 2

Going into the first fight between these two, the big concern was the takedowns of Ankalaev and the takedown defense of Pereira. Pereira defended all 12 of Ankalaev’s takedowns in that matchup. However, he did not let his hands go, connecting on just 76 of 137 attempted significant strikes throughout the 25-minute battle. The former champ needs to be more aggressive with his striking in the rematch. That’s the only way he can win.

Ankalaev did have success on the feet and the threat of his takedowns helped on that front.

If Pereira ignores the threat of the takedowns in this fight, he’s likely to get taken down. The reason he had success in the first fight was because he was so focused on that aspect of the fight. If he puts that aside and focuses on striking, he’s likely to open himself up to the takedowns.

In short, Pereira’s in a tough spot and he’s simply not well-rounded enough to deal with everything Ankalaev brings to the table.

The betting pick is Ankalaev to win via decision.

We will have more on the UFC 320 fight card as fight night nears.