White House ally holds 'big chip of leverage' that may decide Trump's fate: analysis

One member of President Donald Trump's White House holds a "big chip of leverage" that could decide Trump's fate once he leaves office, according to a new analysis.

Mark Green, president of the New Democracy Project, argued in a new Substack essay that Vice President JD Vance holds the key to deciding Trump's fate in 2029, after his second administration ends. Green noted that Trump will likely want to pardon himself for any legal liability he faces after his term is up and will need Vance to play ball to make that happen.

"So as for now, Trump obviously dominates the relationship, but Vance has one big chip of leverage," Green wrote. "While The Donald says he’s legally immune given 'Article II' and the Supreme Court decision a year ago in Trump v. United States giving him presidential immunity for 'core acts,' he will also want to pardon himself to be sure before departing."

"For it’s probably 50-50 whether even this Supreme Court would allow such a self-dealing and unprecedented constitutional maneuver – also, it could narrowly define 'core acts' as not including, say, tax fraud and incitement to an illegal Insurrection," he added.

Green likened the scenario to a high-stakes game of craps for Trump.

"In this game of craps, he might want to place his chips on a January 2029 resignation to allow for the gambit that Vance-Trump becomes a 21st-century version of Ford-Nixon so he spends his golden years in Mar-A-Lago and not a small prison cell," Green wrote.

"Quién sabe? Fasten your seat belts for the coming crash," he added.