Meta Stock: Zuckerberg Bets Big on Prediction Markets With New ‘Arena’ App

TLDR

• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team to build a prediction market app called “Arena,” per the New York Times
• Arena will likely use a points-based system rather than real money, though real-money betting hasn’t been ruled out
• The app will operate independently from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger
• Meta previously launched a similar app called Forecast in 2020, which was shut down in 2022
• Prediction markets could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the end of the decade, according to Bernstein

Meta is building a prediction market app called “Arena” at the direction of CEO Mark Zuckerberg, the New York Times reported Tuesday, citing two employees with knowledge of the project.

The app would let users make forecasts on events spanning politics, sports, entertainment, and world affairs. It mirrors platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which surged in popularity during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Rather than wagering real cash, Arena will likely use a video game-style points system. Meta has not ruled out real-money betting down the line, according to the report.

The project is described internally as both experimental and a top priority. A small dedicated team is already working on it.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

Meta (META) closed Monday at $716.42, up roughly 45% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor sentiment heading into the Arena news.

Arena is designed to function as a standalone app, separate from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. Meta plans to drive users to it by tapping into its existing audience — the company reported 3.56 billion daily active people across its apps in April.

Meta Has Been Here Before

This isn’t Meta’s first attempt at prediction markets. The company launched a similar product called Forecast in 2020, aimed at predicting current events and trends during the early days of COVID-19. It shut that product down in 2022.

The renewed push comes as virtually every major trading platform has moved into the prediction market space. Robinhood (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) have both rolled out event contracts. Crypto platforms Coinbase (COIN) and Kraken have also explored the space.

Bernstein estimated in April that prediction markets could balloon to $1 trillion in annual trading volumes by the end of the decade.

Arena is one of several standalone apps Meta is currently testing. Another, called Meta Photos, is focused on generating new types of media.

Regulatory Cloud Hangs Over the Sector

The sector’s rapid growth hasn’t gone unnoticed by regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has repeatedly examined whether certain event contracts serve a legitimate hedging purpose or cross into prohibited gambling territory.

Critics argue contracts tied to elections or geopolitical events blur the line between financial instruments and gambling. There are also concerns around market manipulation and insider information — particularly after well-timed trades ahead of major Trump policy announcements potentially generated millions in profits for unknown traders.

Meta did not respond to a Reuters request for comment, and Reuters could not independently verify the report.

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