ASML Stock Falls 8% as China Export Control Bill Advances – Analysts Weigh In

TLDR

• ASML stock fell 7.82% to $1,778.46, underperforming the broader market
• U.S. authorities raised allegations of potential export control violations involving China
• A bipartisan bill could block all deep-ultraviolet lithography (DUV) shipments to China
• China accounts for roughly 20% of ASML’s expected 2026 revenue
• Wells Fargo raised its price target to $2,200; consensus remains Moderate Buy

ASML (ASML) closed at $1,778.46 on Tuesday, down 7.82% on the day, as concerns over U.S. export restrictions on China rattled investors. The S&P 500 fell 1.44% on the same session, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.22%, but ASML’s drop stood out even in that environment.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The sell-off came after U.S. authorities raised allegations of potential export control violations by ASML. Lawmakers are also pushing a bipartisan bill that could stop all deep-ultraviolet (DUV) lithography shipments to China entirely.

China is expected to make up roughly 20% of ASML’s total revenue in 2026. That exposure is now at the center of the story for investors.

ASML denied the allegations, saying no EUV tools were exported to China in violation of controls. The denial may limit reputational damage, but the scrutiny is not going away.

Adding to the pressure, investors are now worried that tighter export rules could restrict software updates, replacement parts, and maintenance services for tools already in China. That recurring-revenue stream has been quietly valuable.

There are also competitive concerns. Nikon is gaining ground in mature-node immersion systems, and Chinese domestic lithography efforts are advancing — both could pressure pricing and margins in ASML’s lower-end business.

Earnings on the Horizon

Despite the drop, ASML’s underlying numbers still look strong on paper. The company reports earnings on July 15, 2026. Analysts expect earnings per share of $7.98, which would represent year-over-year growth of 75.38%.

Revenue estimates for Q2 sit at $10.28 billion, up 17.83% from a year ago. For the full year, the consensus calls for EPS of $36.69 and revenue of $45.35 billion — gains of 31.27% and 22.67%, respectively.

Last quarter, ASML posted EPS of $8.28 on revenue of $10.15 billion, with a return on equity of 48.69% and a net margin of 27.65%.

The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 52.58, a premium to the industry average of 47.43. The PEG ratio sits at 1.55, slightly above the sector average of 1.48.

Analyst Sentiment Holds, for Now

Analyst sentiment has held up reasonably well in spite of the sell-off. Wells Fargo raised its price target from $1,750 to $2,200 and kept an overweight rating. Bank of America also raised its target and maintained a Buy rating.

Morgan Stanley and Barclays both reissued overweight ratings in recent weeks.

The consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with four Strong Buy ratings, 20 Buy ratings, five Holds, and three Sells. The consensus price target is $1,772.62 — roughly in line with where the stock closed.

Not everyone is staying the course. Riverbridge Partners LLC cut its ASML stake by 40.3% in Q1, selling 1,201 shares. The firm held 1,781 shares valued at $2.35 million after the reduction.

ASML’s 50-day moving average stands at $1,610.59 and the 200-day at $1,411.79, giving the stock room before it tests longer-term technical levels. The one-year range sits between $683.48 and $1,959.04.

The Zacks Rank for ASML is currently #3 (Hold), with EPS estimates revised down 1.11% over the past 30 days.

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