JPMorgan says Bitcoin could climb to around $165,000

Uptober gains have attracted groundbreaking predictions led by banking giant JPMorgan. As per the financial giant, Bitcoin could climb to around $165,000 on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold. 

The Wall Street lender’s models indicate that Bitcoin would need to rise approximately 40% from current levels to match the scale of private gold holdings once risk is factored in.

October is one of the best months for crypto, bringing new hope after a gloomy September. This year’s October will favour the crypto market even more because of the so-called “debasement trade” that continues to gain momentum. The debasement trade involves buying assets such as gold or Bitcoin to hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies.

To that end, the retail investors have accelerated their embrace of the debasement trade, pouring into both Bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds over the past quarter. 

The rise in gold prices made BTC more appealing

JPMorgan says that most of the activity is coming from retail buyers. Institutional buyers have also been participating, primarily through Bitcoin and gold futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), rather than ETFs. Based on open interest, the bank’s proxy shows that institutions have been net buyers since 2024. However, there has been a lull in their buying lately.

The sharp rise in gold prices over the past month has also made BTC more appealing, as the volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has dropped below 2.0. This change suggests that the bank still views Bitcoin as being worth less than gold. However, its price is currently $50,000 less than what JPMorgan’s model says it should be.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou say that flows into these assets have been on the rise since late 2024. This trend began before the US election and has continued to gain momentum ever since.

Concerns about long-term inflation, growing government deficits, questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, a loss of trust in fiat currencies in some emerging markets, and a larger move to move away from the US dollar prompted the analysts to make the deal.

Besides, JP Morgan, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has said that Bitcoin could reach a price range of $160,000 to $200,000 by year’s end if demand continues to expand. According to the firm, Spot demand for bitcoin has been rising since July, with apparent demand increasing at a monthly pace of more than 62,000 BTC. This kind of sustained demand has preceded previous fourth-quarter rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

In addition,  traders are braced for a 2026 bitcoin price earthquake. U.S. President Donald Trump’s son Eric has said he expects Bitcoin price to go to $1 million as crypto replaces the established financial industry.

A three-day streak of $100 million-plus BTC ETF inflows

JPMorgan stated that the total amount of money invested in live Bitcoin and gold ETFs has increased sharply. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) grew faster than gold at first this year, especially after “Liberation Day.” But since August, gold ETF inflows have been catching up, closing the gap.

Bitcoin ETFs have recorded their highest single-day inflows since mid-September. According to on-chain data, BTC ETFs attracted $675.8 million worth of inflows on Wednesday. BlackRock’s IBIT fund, currently the world’s largest Bitcoin fund, led the charge with $405.5 million of inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC fund attracted $179.3 million, while Bitwise’s BITB fund attracted $59.4 million.

Yesterday’s gains mark a three-day streak of $100 million-plus inflows since the start of the week, with BTC ETFs attracting $518 million on Monday, September 29, and $429.9 million on Tuesday, September 30.

Meanwhile, the world’s largest crypto coin by market capitalization rose by over 7% in the past 7 days, currently trading at $119,693. This marks BTC’s strongest price since mid-August.

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