Who’s Ahead in JPMorgan’s Game of Thrones?

And then there were two.

A pair of high-profile promotions at JPMorgan Chase on Thursday appeared to narrow the long-running Jamie Dimon succession race to just two candidates: Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh, now co-presidents and CEOs of the bank’s commercial and investment division and consumer division, respectively. The shake-up seems to have knocked at least one other frontrunner out of contention. One thing we know is there isn’t room for two kings to sit on one Iron Throne, and that’s assuming, you know, Dimon actually decides to give up the job he’s held for 20 years running.

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In fact, even when Dimon does relinquish the CEO gig, the small council chamber inside the Red Keep might feel a little crowded: He has already promised to stick around in an advisory role as executive chairman instead of disappearing to a pristine beach somewhere. Dimon wouldn’t be the only longtime leader of an iconic American company to do so, and in the meantime, the 70-year-old is holding his cards pretty close to his chest. In 2024, America’s Banker suggested he had less than five years at the helm. In a March interview, he told Barron’s that, “board willing,” he aims to serve at least three or four more years.

Either way, Petno and Rohrbaugh, ages 61 and 56 respectively, will have some runway to make their final push for the job, with both now the sole leaders of their own considerable fiefdoms:

• Rohrbaugh is stepping over to the consumer division after spending years leading investment banking and trading. The Main Street division accounted for roughly 40% of the company’s revenue in the first quarter, and 30% of its net income, though it may be the unit most susceptible to disruption in the fintech and AI age.
• Petno, whose background is in oil and gas investment banking, is now the sole leader of the Wall Street side of the company. That unit continues to be JPMorgan’s major growth engine, with its $9 billion in net income in Q1 marking a 30% year-over-year increase.

At the same time, Marianne Lake, the consumer business head and former finance chief once viewed as a likely frontrunner, announced her retirement on Thursday after it became apparent she would not get the top job, sources told The Wall Street Journal.

Stress Positions: Not that it needs saying, both men will inherit a bank far larger than the one Dimon took over two decades ago; its market cap, currently $897 billion, has climbed about 437% in that time. The bank also, unsurprisingly, recently aced the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests, prompting the announcement of $50 billion in share buybacks.

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