Why is Bitcoin rising these days?

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin climbed above $120,000. 

But why is Bitcoin rising these days? 

Although there is no obvious explanation, it is possible to imagine one based on some objective observations. 

The Rise of Bitcoin

In the second half of September, the price of Bitcoin had dropped from about $118,000 to less than $109,000. 

At the end of the month, it then remained essentially steady around the 109,000$ mark for about four days, before starting to rebound. 

The rebound began on Sunday, September 28, but stopped on September 30 around the 114,000$ mark. 

Note that the $115,000 level was also the support that broke on September 22, and therefore in the meantime had probably turned into resistance. 

The key point, therefore, was precisely the surpassing of $115,000, which occurred on October 1st.

In fact, with momentum, it ended up rising even above $116,000, and practically did not stop until it reached $121,000, touched briefly yesterday. 

Now a small correction is underway, inevitable after such a linear and especially sudden rise. 

Uptober

It is probably not even a coincidence that the breakthrough of the resistance set at around $115,000 occurred precisely on October 1st, and not on September 30th. 

It should be noted that in financial markets, September is often a difficult month, also because the third quarter of the year ends, while October, on the contrary, is often a positive month. 

The close of the quarter, and the recalculation of many parameters with the start of the new month, has led to new short-term growth estimates for the price of Bitcoin, and this has allowed the breakthrough of the resistance. 

October is so often a positive month, especially for the crypto markets, that it is often called “uptober”. 

It should be noted that since Bitcoin landed on exchanges (2010), every year following the US presidential elections (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025), a speculative bubble has inflated in the fall, only to burst with the arrival of the new year. 

This time there has already been a first mini-bubble right after Trump’s electoral victory, at the end of 2024, just as in 2021 the great speculative bubble actually inflated starting from the end of 2020. 

The month of October in the year following the US presidential elections has therefore always been very positive for the price of Bitcoin. 

The Causes

To tell the truth, the rise in BTC price that started the day before yesterday might seem unusual, because there doesn’t appear to have been a significant increase in buying pressure. 

However, it should be remembered that the price can rise not only in the event of an increase in buying pressure, but also simply in the event of a decrease in selling pressure. 

Well, starting from September 30, there has been a further decrease in the BTC available on crypto exchanges, because many have been withdrawn by their owners. 

In reality, this decline had already begun in mid-September, but at that time the buying pressure was also decreasing. It should be noted that if the BTC available on exchanges decreases, inevitably the selling pressure cannot increase. 

In fact, generally the variations of BTC present on exchanges are a good proxy for the change in selling pressure. 

However, if it is clear that in recent days there has been a reduction in the selling pressure of Bitcoin on exchanges, while buying pressure has stopped declining (and indeed has probably slightly increased), it is also necessary to understand why this reduction in selling pressure is occurring. 

The Role of ETFs

The prevailing hypothesis is that the BTC withdrawn from exchanges may have indirectly ended up in the coffers of ETFs. 

In fact, starting from September 29, there have only been stock market sessions closed with overall net inflows on BTC ETFs. 

Such inflows necessarily imply for ETF managers the need to purchase additional BTC on the market. 

ETFs usually do not purchase Bitcoin on exchanges, but through, for example, OTC desks. However, the same OTC desks, when the demand for BTC is high, might be forced to look for them on exchanges as well. 

With four consecutive trading sessions closing with more than 400 million dollars per day in total net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, OTC desks may have been forced to go looking for the missing BTC on exchanges. 

Therefore, although indirectly, it might have been the ETFs that caused the reduction in the selling pressure of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges, and given that for some days now the buying pressure is no longer decreasing, the price increase was practically inevitable. 

However, now the situation might have slightly changed, both due to profit-taking and because the decline of the Dollar Index seems to have temporarily halted.