BIS warns AI spending boom could strain global markets

The Bank for International Settlements has warned that the fast rise in AI spending could become a source of broader market risk. 

In its 2026 Annual Economic Report, the central bank body said major AI firms are taking on large capital plans while markets price in strong future growth. The BIS said the five largest U.S. hyperscalers are set to spend more than $1 trillion on AI-related capex across 2025 and 2026. It added that these plans are moving faster than earnings and free cash flow.

The report said strong AI demand helped the world economy hold up in 2025. AI spending supported chips, data centers and power infrastructure, especially in the United States and Asia. But the BIS also warned that a change in investor mood could expose debt across the AI supply chain. It said “A reversal of AI optimism could likewise have major financial consequences.”

Debt and valuations draw BIS concern

The BIS report linked the risk to high stock valuations, rising borrowing and less clear funding channels. It said firms at the center of AI development trade on growth expectations that may be hard to keep. The bank said “sustaining such high growth could become increasingly challenging” as these companies mature. It also pointed to credit markets, where AI labs, hyperscalers and data center contractors have become larger borrowers.

The concern is not only about public technology shares. The BIS said some AI financing uses private deals, supplier commitments and long-term leases that are not always easy to track. If data center spending slows, contractors and suppliers may lose revenue while still carrying debt. That chain could tighten credit and push investors to cut risk.

Recent crypto.news coverage shows how the AI boom has moved into crypto-linked products. Coinbase is selling pre-IPO perpetual futures tied to SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, offering price exposure without direct ownership of private shares. The product opens access to firms that do not trade on public exchanges. It also raises a pricing issue because private companies do not have live public share prices.

crypto.news also reported that OpenAI confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, while Anthropic and SpaceX pursued large listings. Later coverage said SoftBank fell after reports that OpenAI may delay its listing to protect a possible $1 trillion valuation. These updates show that AI valuations now reach beyond venture capital. They also show why changes in AI sentiment can spill into equity, derivatives and crypto-linked markets.

Inflation and stablecoins add to the warning

The BIS warning comes as investors watch inflation and interest rates. crypto.news reported that Morgan Stanley still expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, but said stronger jobs data or stubborn inflation could force another rate rise. Higher rates would raise funding costs for AI builders and suppliers. They could also make investors less willing to pay high prices for future growth.

The BIS also cautioned that stablecoins can create new risks outside the bank system. Its 2026 report said money-like digital assets can be run-prone instruments beyond bank oversight. 

A separate BIS chapter said current stablecoin designs fall short on key properties of money and could strain financial integrity if widely used. The message is that AI, crypto and credit markets are becoming more connected while funding costs remain a key risk.