Bitcoin’s Bull Run Backed by Growing Long-Term Holders

For the first time since it hit an all-time high in mid-August, Bitcoin (BTC) has gone back up to $120,000, making participants more positive about the market.

However, pseudonymous analyst Avocado_onchain has identified an important aspect to the latest rally: that it’s not only powered by macro conditions and ETF inflows but also by the rising share of long-term holders (LTHs), signaling growing conviction in the number one cryptocurrency’s trajectory.

The Conviction Behind the Climb

In a recent assessment for CryptoQuant, Avocado_onchain pointed out that there has been an increase in the number of investors who have been holding their Bitcoin for 18 months to two years.

These participants, who survived the last bear market, are now strategically retaining their assets. Also, their holding period lines up with the historic approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. According to the analyst, it means that their patience comes from confidence in this change to the market structure, rather than mere necessity.

He suggested that the transition from passive endurance to active conviction marks a deeper belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

Looking at the current rally, it is supported by a powerful confluence of macroeconomic and regulatory developments. For example, the recent U.S. government shutdown and weak economic data, including significant job losses, helped strengthen the cryptocurrency’s appeal as an alternative asset.

At the same time, a clarifying policy from the U.S. Treasury stated that unrealized Bitcoin gains held by corporations will not be taxed, a move expected to encourage more corporate adoption. This was further complemented by substantial institutional inflows, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bringing in almost $1 billion in late September, and BlackRock’s fund now having more than $80 billion in assets.

Outlook and Price Action

Bitcoin is now testing the $120,000 to $122,000 range, which market watchers say is a key turning point that could set the trend for the next few days. A clean break above would open the door for new record highs, while rejection could pull the asset back toward $100,000.

On a technical basis, the asset is up 1.3% in the last 24 hours, nearly 10% on the week, 8% over the past month, and 96% year-on-year.

Looking ahead, some analysts are drawing comparisons to gold’s record run. With the precious metal hitting $3,900 per ounce this week and historical correlations suggesting an eight-week lag, the experts argue the OG cryptocurrency may be primed for a strong November.

If that pattern holds, forecasts of $150,000 by late October or early November are gaining traction, though most observers agree volatility will remain high.

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