Oracle (ORCL) Stock: Why Wall Street Is Still Bullish After a 24% Drop

TLDR

• Oracle stock has fallen for nine consecutive days, dropping 24% — its longest losing streak since December 2021
• The stock is down 28% year-to-date and 57% from its record high of $248.15 set in September 2025
• Despite the drop, 84% of Wall Street analysts rate ORCL a Buy, with an average price target of ~$263.86
• Retail investors are buying the dip — ORCL saw more retail buying over the past month than Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet
• Investor concern centers on Oracle’s heavy capital expenditure spending and growing debt load

Oracle reported strong Q4 fiscal 2026 results on June 10 — $19.2 billion in revenue, up 21% year-over-year, beating Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The company also raised its profit outlook. The market didn’t care.

Oracle Corporation, ORCL

Since closing at a 2026 high of $248.15 on June 1, the stock has fallen on 18 out of 22 trading days. It has now dropped 24% over a nine-day losing streak — the longest such run since December 2021. That puts ORCL down roughly 57% from its all-time closing high of September 10, 2025.

What makes this especially strange is the timing. The broader software sector has been recovering. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is on a five-day winning streak, up more than 10% over that stretch. Oracle is moving in the opposite direction.

The culprit, according to most analysts, is money — specifically how much Oracle is spending and how it’s financing that spending. The company has taken on a heavy debt load to fund its AI infrastructure buildout, and investors appear to be losing patience with the capital expenditure trajectory.

Wall Street Stays Bullish

Despite the sell-off, analyst sentiment hasn’t budged. A full 84% of analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy — a figure that has only been higher once in the past 20 years, briefly in May 2011.

The average price target sits around $263.86, implying roughly 88% upside from current levels. Mizuho analyst Siti Panigrahi carries one of the highest targets on the Street at $320, calling Oracle a top pick and citing its “end to end AI stack across database, infrastructure, and applications.” Panigrahi does flag financing challenges as a key risk, noting Oracle will likely need outside funding to cover its capex plans.

KeyBanc analysts hiked their estimates last month, saying they are “increasingly comfortable” that operating expense growth will stay muted. They maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, adding that controlled opex is “where future upside will come from.”

Retail Investors Step In

While institutional sentiment watches from the sidelines, retail investors are moving in the other direction. Data from TipRanks’ Crowd Wisdom tool, tracking more than 868,000 retail investors, shows ORCL saw more buying activity over the past 30 days than any of its major tech peers.

Over the past month, 3.8% of tracked portfolios added ORCL. That compares to 3.6% for Microsoft, 3.5% for Nvidia, 2.9% for both Amazon and Alphabet, and 2.2% for Meta.

The 32 analysts covering the stock over the past three months have issued 28 Buys and just four Holds — a Strong Buy consensus with no Sell ratings.

Oracle’s next earnings date has not yet been confirmed, but the Q4 report that failed to stop the bleeding came in at $19.2 billion in revenue with a raised profit outlook.

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