Gold Bulls Face $4,500 Test After JPMorgan Cuts Q4 Target By 25%

JPMorgan cut its fourth-quarter gold forecast by about 25%, citing softer demand even as it kept a bullish long-term view.

JPMorgan Gold

JPMorgan turned more cautious on gold in the near term after cutting its Q4 2026 forecast to $4,500 per ounce, according to market updates published Jul. 4.

The new target is down from a prior forecast near $6,000.

The bank now expects gold to average $4,300 in the third quarter before rising later in the year.

The scale of the revision is notable because it lowers the bank’s fourth-quarter view by roughly 25%. JPMorgan attributed the move to softer purchasing power in major demand centers and a market that has become more sensitive to real interest rates.

The bank described gold as likely to stay “range-bound” in the short term. That implies sideways trading before any stronger recovery takes hold in the second half of 2026.

Gold recently traded near $4,175, up 1.26% over 24 hours, according to TradingView data cited in the report. The metal remains about 26% below its January 2026 record near $5,600.

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Gold Demand

JPMorgan did not abandon its broader bullish view. The bank said central bank buying and strong physical demand could continue supporting prices into 2027.

That view puts JPMorgan below some rival forecasts for now. Goldman Sachs sees gold reaching $4,900 by the end of 2026, while UBS and Morgan Stanley both target $5,200 over the next 12 months or in the second half of 2026.

Morgan Stanley, however, said gold may need stronger ETF inflows before a more durable rally develops. That leaves the next move dependent on whether institutional demand returns with enough force to offset weaker physical buying.

The forecast also matters for crypto markets because gold and Bitcoin (BTC) have traded as competing macro hedges through 2025 and 2026. A range-bound gold market could leave more room for short-term flows into digital assets, though JPMorgan’s longer-term view suggests gold remains central to reserve and hedging strategies.

Gold’s recent decline followed a steep rally into January, when prices approached $5,600 before sliding back toward the low $4,000 range. That history explains why JPMorgan’s cut marks a pause in expectations, not a full reversal of the metal’s multi-year uptrend.

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