BN win in Johor won’t necessarily trigger national resurgence

PETALING JAYA: A Barisan Nasional victory in the Johor polls may give Malaysia’s grand old coalition a shot in the arm but is unlikely to trigger the national resurgence envisioned by its chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, say analysts.

Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia pointed out that BN won handsomely in the 2021 Melaka and 2022 Johor state elections, with the Umno-led coalition attaining a two-thirds majority in both state assemblies.

She added that both state elections, held just as the nation was exiting the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, recorded a low voter turnout. She also noted that Barisan Nasional maintained strong machinery in both states.

However, Syaza said BN performed poorly in the November 2022 general election (GE15), winning just 30 parliamentary seats, its worst haul ever in a general election.

Even in Umno’s birthplace of Johor, Pakatan Harapan won the lion’s share of parliamentary seats—13, followed by BN with nine, Perikatan Nasional (two) and Muda (one).

“This could repeat, so we would have to analyse the factors that contributed to BN’s victory if it wins. For example, was there a high turnout of voters?

“The other thing is that the next general election (GE16) would have to be held within six months after the Johor polls if BN wishes to maintain its momentum.

“If GE16 is delayed, all sorts of things could happen before the nationwide polls are held,” she told FMT.

Last week, Zahid said Johor would serve as the starting point of BN’s national resurgence.

BN is contesting for all 56 seats in the July 11 Johor polls, and hopes to retain and build on the 40 seats it secured in the last state election in 2022.

Up next would be the Negeri Sembilan state election on Aug 1, where BN also intends to contest all 36 seats up for grabs.

However, Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said BN’s resurgence would only come from efforts to forge a renewed Umno-PAS pact, not the multiracial coalition’s own standing.

He added that BN continues to struggle in attracting support from non-Malays and urban Malays—segments largely commanded by PH—despite branding itself as a multiracial bloc.