XRP price prediction after breakout puts $1.14 and $1.18 back in focus

XRP has recovered from this week’s sharp sell-off after defending the $1.07 support zone, with traders weighing an emerging bullish chart breakout against persistent geopolitical and regulatory risks that continue to cap upside.

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) price was trading near $1.09 at press time after rebounding from Tuesday’s low of around $1.07, though it remained below the July 4 peak near $1.18.

Risk appetite improved slightly after the initial wave of selling tied to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions eased, but sentiment across the altcoin market remains cautious following more than $400 million in crypto liquidations earlier this week. XRP itself accounted for over $8.6 million in long liquidations during the sell-off, underscoring how heavily leveraged positioning amplified the decline.

Adding to the recovery narrative, analyst Gerla believes XRP has completed a notable technical milestone.

While the short-term bounce has attracted fresh buyers, institutional sentiment has yet to fully recover. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded roughly $7.29 million in net outflows on July 8, the largest single-day withdrawal since March.

At the same time, legislative uncertainty continues after the White House missed its July 4 target for passing the CLARITY Act, leaving investors without the regulatory catalyst many had expected to support digital assets during the summer.

Technical structure favors recovery if XRP holds above key support

The daily chart shows XRP stabilizing just above its 20-day simple moving average near $1.05 after briefly slipping below the psychologically important $1.10 level. Although price remains beneath the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages clustered between $1.17 and $1.46, the 20-day average has flattened, while Chaikin Money Flow has climbed back above zero, suggesting capital has started returning after several weeks of distribution.

The 4-hour chart presents a more constructive setup. XRP has reclaimed the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1.076 and is attempting to establish support around the 0.5 retracement at $1.097.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has nearly returned to positive territory as the MACD and signal lines converge, while the RSI has rebounded toward 42 after printing higher lows despite price registering fresh local lows. That bullish divergence closely aligns with Gerla’s descending-channel breakout thesis.

Derivatives positioning also leaves room for volatility. CoinGlass liquidation data shows one of the largest short liquidation clusters sitting around $1.14, with additional liquidity concentrated near $1.18.

A sustained move through those levels could trigger forced short covering and accelerate a rally toward the 50-day moving average near $1.18. Conversely, downside liquidity has become thinner until roughly $1.07, reducing immediate liquidation pressure if buyers continue defending current levels.

Macro risks still threaten the bullish setup

Several external risks could quickly invalidate the recovery scenario despite improving chart signals.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains the most immediate concern after the United States launched strikes against Iranian military targets and President Donald Trump formally ended the previous ceasefire framework. Any further escalation in the Middle East could renew demand for defensive assets and pressure cryptocurrencies, particularly higher-beta altcoins such as XRP.

Regulatory developments also remain unresolved. The delayed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act continues to weigh on sentiment, while institutional demand could remain subdued if ETF flows stay negative. On-chain activity has also shown large-holder wallets distributing tens of millions of XRP during the recent decline, suggesting some whales continue reducing exposure into rebounds.

From a technical perspective, losing support at $1.07 would invalidate the emerging breakout structure and expose XRP to the June swing low near $1.01. A decisive move above $1.10 would strengthen the bullish case, while reclaiming $1.14 and then $1.18 could shift momentum back in favor of buyers and open the door for another attempt at the late-May highs.