Nato weathers another Trump storm but braces for more after Ankara summit

ANKARA: Nato has weathered another storm from Donald Trump but European members of the military alliance are bracing for more turbulence ahead in relations with the US president.

It says much about the state of US-European ties when a Nato summit that began with a US leader ordering a cutoff in trade with one member, Spain, and rebuking others was widely hailed as a success after he re-committed to the alliance hours later.

European leaders were upbeat after the Ankara summit, pleased by Trump’s talk of “love in the room”, his endorsement of a declaration that reiterated support for Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence pact and his decision to give Ukraine a license to make Patriot missile interceptors.

That was a relief after months of severe strains triggered by Trump’s efforts to take Greenland from fellow Nato member Denmark and divisions over the Iran war, which prompted him to revive his longstanding criticism of the alliance and cast doubt on future US membership.

Although they expect more volatility in the relationship, European officials see huge value in keeping their superpower ally inside the alliance.

Without US military clout, many fear they would be more vulnerable to an attack from Russia.

Rutte says US remains ‘dominant player’ in Nato

“There is, of course, one dominant player in the room – let’s be honest,” Nato secretary general Mark Rutte told Reuters after the summit.

“The US on its own is half of Nato’s economy, and the military might of the US is unparalleled and is as big as the might of the rest of Nato combined,” he said.

Rutte said Nato’s credibility and ability to deter Moscow had not been undermined by the recent display of divisions.

Not everyone is so sure.

“Even if Trump makes nice, the damage is done,” said Jim Townsend, a former senior Pentagon ⁠official now at the Center for a New American Security think tank.

“Russia and the alliance taxpayer need to see that Nato is getting stronger, but that message is lost in the theatrics of Trump,” Townsend said.

One European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, doubted the summit had undone any of the damage of recent months. “But it didn’t get worse and that’s progress, considering…,” the diplomat said.

Promises on defence spending

Ending the summit on a positive note provided a measure of vindication for Rutte and the host, Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan.

Before the summit, Rutte and other Nato officials sought to persuade Trump to set aside tension over Iran and stick with the alliance, telling him big increases in defence spending by European allies were a personal victory for him.

Trump has long said Europe should spend more on defence, and his administration is pushing Europeans to take over primary responsibility for the conventional defence of the continent.

When Rutte met Trump at the White House last month, Nato officials set up easels with large charts showing increases in defence spending by the alliance’s European members and Canada in the decade since Trump began his first term in 2017.

One bore the heading “The Trump Trillion” in gold capital letters, suggesting he was responsible for US$1.21 trillion in allies’ extra spending, although it also covered four years of Joe Biden’s presidency.

“Some ambassadors have been critical of Rutte’s behaviour in Washington. Others say: Can anybody find an alternative?” one senior diplomat said ahead of the summit.

Officials also prepared data to counter some of Trump’s assertions that Nato allies had denied support to US forces in the Iran war.

“While Spain banned the US from using bases on its territory, other allies largely stuck to longstanding agreements with US forces,” Rutte said.

Such efforts sometimes got him into diplomatic trouble among Europeans.

Italian defence minister Guido Crosetto accused Rutte of conveying a “totally misleading message” after he said some 500 US planes had taken off to support the war from US bases in Italy, where the conflict was deeply unpopular.

Allies seal defence deals but face uncertainty

Before the summit, Nato also sought to show that its members were turning cash into military capabilities with a glitzy defence industry forum in Ankara, featuring giant screens, slick videos and a blizzard of deals for military kit including surveillance planes, drones and transport aircraft.

It came with a big number attached – Nato said the deals were worth more than US$50 billion.

“Trump likes strong men, winners, big, beautiful numbers and flattery – and the summit had all of those,” said Oana Lungescu, a Distinguished Fellow at the RUSI think tank and a former Nato spokeswoman.

However long the summit afterglow lasts, European officials are braced for more upheaval.

Having already cut back on the forces it pledges to deploy for Nato in the event of a crisis, the Pentagon last month launched a review of the 80,000-strong US troop presence in Europe.

However, many Nato states have concluded there is one thing they can do to reduce the drama – hold fewer summits. Plans for a leaders’ meeting in Albania next year are on hold.

“Better to hit the pause button on these gatherings rather than have the alliance confront what has amounted to an annual existential crisis,” said John R Deni, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.