8 hot seats to watch in the Johor election

PETALING JAYA: With campaigning almost over, attention now turns to whether Johor’s state election will reinforce the status quo or produce major upsets.

The contest is about more than control of the state assembly. It is also a test of coalition strength, voter sentiment and incumbents’ ability to fend off challengers and newcomers amid cost-of-living concerns and local grievances.

Much of that story will play out in eight key battleground seats.

Political analysts Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, Chin Yee Mun of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman and Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia weigh in on which way the different battles will go.

Bukit Kepong 

PN’s Dr Sahruddin Jamal is seeking a third consecutive term in Bukit Kepong, having won the seat in 2018 and narrowly retaining it in 2022.

He served as Johor menteri besar from April 2019 until February 2020, when the Pakatan Harapan government fell following the “Sheraton Move”.

He was succeeded by BN’s Hasni Mohammad, who formed the state government with support from 28 assemblymen, including from PAS. Sahruddin faces PH’s C Subramani and BN’s Ahmad Syar’e Yusof in Saturday’s state election.

Analysts’ verdict:

Azmi: BN
Syaza: PN
Chin: BN

Bukit Pasir 

PH’s candidate from Amanah, Najib Lep, is making another attempt to reclaim Bukit Pasir after losing the seat in 2022, when he contested as an independent in a five-cornered race.

PAS subsequently sacked him for challenging the party’s candidate, Nur Iqbal Abd Razak.

BN’s Fazli Salleh went on to win the seat by a slim majority. Najib had won Bukit Pasir in 2018 under PAS’s banner. He will face Fazli and PN’s Idzhar Nasirrudin in Saturday’s state election.

Analysts’ verdict:

Azmi: BN
Syaza: PH
Chin: BN

Tangkak 

Tangkak is expected to see a closely fought straight contest between three-term incumbent Ee Chin Li of PH and BN’s Haw Chin Teck of MCA.

Ee has held the seat since 2013, when he wrested it from MCA-BN, which had regarded the constituency as a stronghold since it was established in 1959.

The electorate comprises 46.7% Chinese voters, 41.2% Malays, 9.9% Indians and 2.2% others.

Analysts’ verdict:

Azmi: PH
Syaza: PH
Chin: BN

Simpang Jeram

PH’s Nazri Abdul Rahman of Amanah won Simpang Jeram in the 2023 by-election following the death of then incumbent and Amanah deputy president Salahuddin Ayub.

BN did not contest the seat then, making way for PH in the spirit of the Madani government.

Saturday’s election will test PH’s strength without that arrangement. Nazri is defending the seat against Muda’s Ainie Haziqah Shafii, BN’s Azman Ismail and PN’s Arshed Yahya @ Awang.

Analysts’ verdict:

Azmi: PH
Syaza: PH
Chin: PN

Senggarang 

Senggarang will see a three-cornered contest among Batu Pahat MP Onn Abu Bakar of PH, former Dewan Rakyat deputy speaker Rashid Hasnon for PN, and incumbent Yusla Ismail of BN.

Yusla won the seat with a comfortable 3,912-vote majority in the 2022 state election.

Senggarang is a Malay-majority constituency, with Malays making up 61.8% of voters, followed by Chinese (34.9%), Indians (0.7%) and others (2.6%).

Analysts’ verdict:

BN to win

Endau 

Alwiyah Talib is seeking a third term in Endau after winning the seat for BN in 2018 and retaining it under PN with Bersatu in 2022.

She left Umno for Bersatu after BN lost federal power in the 14th general election but returned to the party in early June and is contesting under the BN banner.

She faces PH’s Saiful Nizam Samat, PN’s Hasnul Hakimi Hussein and Jati Awang of Parti Orang Asli Malaysia, which is making its electoral debut.

Endau’s voters comprise 80.1% Malays, 13.4% Chinese, 4.6% Orang Asli, 0.7% Indians, and others.

Analysts’ verdict:

BN to win

Puteri Wangsa

Muda president Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz won Puteri Wangsa in 2022 when the party was allied with PH for the Johor election and the general election later that year.

She is not defending the seat amid speculation she is preparing to contest a parliamentary seat at the next general election.

Muda has fielded 26-year-old Rashifa Aljunied to defend the seat against PH’s former education minister Maszlee Malik, BN’s Teow Chia Ling, Parti Bersama Malaysia’s Nicholas Paul Vincent and independent Wang Wee Siong.

Analysts’ verdict:

Azmi: PH
Syaza: PH
Chin: BN

Skudai 

Marina Ibrahim, from DAP, won the seat in 2022 with a 13,943-vote majority but is not seeking re-election, having announced her retirement from politics in May.

She said she lost faith in politics over DAP’s stance on former prime minister Najib Razak’s incarceration, a claim denied by party secretary-general Loke Siew Fook.

PH’s J Kartiyaini faces BN’s Tang Hiang Kee, Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s Amir Syafiq Ameer Soekre and Bersama’s Eugene Chua as the coalition seeks to retain the Chinese-majority seat.

Analysts’ verdict:

PH to win